The worsening world economy is expected to have a strong impact on oil demand next year especially in the OECD countries. The forecast calls for a contraction in the first half of the year, resulting from a huge decline in OECD oil demand. OECD oil demand is forecast to show an average decline of 1.3 mb/d year on year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009.
World oil demand growth however, will be boosted mainly by China, the Middle East and other Asia which is estimated at 0.6 tb/d or 78% of total non-OECD forecast oil demand growth next year. The deteriorating economies in OECD countries are estimated to reduce total world oil demand by 0.15 mb/day or 0.2% for 2009 to average 85.7 mb/d. Should the world economic situation show further deterioration and the winter prove to be warmer than expected, then oil demand might show a further decline, the report said.
Non-Opec oil supply is expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2008 following a downward revision of 110 tb/d from last months assessment. The main contributors to the revision are USA and FSU countries. In 2009, non-Opec oil supply growth is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d over the current year. This represents a downward revision of 100 tb/d, the bulk of which comes from Russia, USA and Australia.