Opec projects a drop of 1.4 mb/d in crude in 2009

Written by Sanjay Jog | Mumbai | Updated: Dec 18 2008, 05:10am hrs
The demand for Opec crude in 2008 is expected to average 31.6 million barrel per day (mb/d), a decline of 0.7 mb/d from the previous year. In 2009, according to OPECs oil market report for December released on Tuesday, the demand for Opec crude is expected to average 30.2 mb/d, a drop of 1.4 mb/d from the current year.

The worsening world economy is expected to have a strong impact on oil demand next year especially in the OECD countries. The forecast calls for a contraction in the first half of the year, resulting from a huge decline in OECD oil demand. OECD oil demand is forecast to show an average decline of 1.3 mb/d year on year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009.

World oil demand growth however, will be boosted mainly by China, the Middle East and other Asia which is estimated at 0.6 tb/d or 78% of total non-OECD forecast oil demand growth next year. The deteriorating economies in OECD countries are estimated to reduce total world oil demand by 0.15 mb/day or 0.2% for 2009 to average 85.7 mb/d. Should the world economic situation show further deterioration and the winter prove to be warmer than expected, then oil demand might show a further decline, the report said.

Non-Opec oil supply is expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2008 following a downward revision of 110 tb/d from last months assessment. The main contributors to the revision are USA and FSU countries. In 2009, non-Opec oil supply growth is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d over the current year. This represents a downward revision of 100 tb/d, the bulk of which comes from Russia, USA and Australia.