Morgan Stanley cuts gold, silver price forecasts

Written by Reuters | Bangalore | Updated: Jun 26 2013, 16:45pm hrs
Morgan Stanley lowered its gold and silver price forecasts citing the possibility of reduced US Federal Reserve monetary stimulus or outright withdrawal from the current quantitative easing programme.

"With investor demand for safe-haven assets waning against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and rising US bond yields, market conditions for gold and silver have become markedly less favourable," the bank said in a note.

The bank cut its 2013 gold price forecast by 5% to $1,409 an ounce and its 2014 estimate by 16% to $1,313. Morgan Stanley lowered its 2013 silver price forecast by 14 % to $23.39 an ounce and its 2014 estimate by 29% to $21.01 an ounce.

The bank maintained its bullish view on palladium, raising its 2013 price forecast by 1% to $743 an ounce, as it expects auto sector demand to remain robust.

Morgan Stanley also downgraded the whole base metal sector saying growing oversupply and excess capacity was cause for caution. The bank, however said, the market consensus on downside risks to copper prices was too bearish, and the metal remains its preferred exposure in a challenging sector.

The bank lowered its 2013 nickel price forecast by 7% to $7.23 per pound, tin by 7% to $10.08 per pound, copper by 3% to $3.42 per pound and aluminum by 2% to $0.89 per pound.