Weathermen predict good rainfall as the global models have projected 55% chances of emergence of La Nina factor by mid-2007. Rainfall distribution would be uneven with concentration on the west coast and on the middle and upper parts of peninsular India.
There had been isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala in the last two days. There was dense cloud cover Arabian Sea causing rainfall. Countrys weathermen were watching the situation and trying to find out whether the monsoon had actually arrived on the mainland.
Finally, the official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the onset of the monsoon at the Kerala coast on May 28.
IMD attributed the present strengthening and deepening of westerly and southwesterly wind flow over Arabian Sea and south peninsula and development of an off-shore trough extending from Karnataka to Kerala coast as the cause for the advancement of the monsoon.
South-west monsoon had arrived at the Andaman Seas on May 10, this year, about a week earlier. This prompted the weathermen to predict its entry into the mainland.
The IMD after reviewing the situation on May 14 predicted early arrival of the monsoon on May 24, subject to a model error of 3 days on either side. Later on May 23, the IMD said that the arrival of the monsoon would be delayed as the situation was not conducive.