The monsoon, which had been delayed by a few days, is expected to advance to the Konkan region, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh during the next few days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.
A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region early next week. Heavy rainfall would occur at places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, IMD stated in its monsoon update.
Each year, the monsoon takes a different path and there is no deviation in the climatological path of monsoon this year, Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told FE.
Nayak said the rainfall in June has been 40% below normal so far, but there is no cause of panic. IMD is expected to release a detailed report on the progress of monsoon next week.
However, the delay in arrival of the monsoon has not impacted the kharif crop plantation. As per the ministry of agriculture data, more than five million hectare (mh) under sugarcane has been sown till now as against 4.9 mh in the corresponding period of 2011-12, while 7.98 lakh hectare had been sown under jute and mesta as compared to 8.36 lakh hectare in the corresponding period last year.
The coverage area under summer pulses is 1.5 mh as compared to the targeted area coverage of 1.7 mh for the current year.
Rains during the June-September season are likely to be 99% of the long period average (LPA). LPA is calculated on the basis of an average annual rainfall received during 1951-2000 at 89 cm.
India is likely to receive average monsoon this year, Vilasrao Deshmukh, minister of earth sciences had said after IMD forecast. This implies that the country is expected to get normal rainfall third year in a row.
The south-western monsoon is crucial for the food production as more than 60% of the farm land gets irrigated by the monsoon. Key agricultural activities taken up during the kharif season depend on the monsoon.
The monsoon for the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96%-104%), with the probability of 47%, IMD had predicted earlier.