With the gradual death of El Nino, the warm episode of the Pacific Ocean, which caused the worst drought last year, and the gradual rise of the La Nina, the cooling effect of the Pacific, the countrys weathermen can possibly garner some confidence to say that monsoon performance may turn out to be better this year.
It may be noted that last year rains in June were normal. The trouble started soon after and July turned out to be the driest month in the last 120 years.
The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), is watching all the global phenomena till end of June and will come out with a set of final forecasts in July. The US-based International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) in its long-term forecast has said that there would be good rains in the country as historically La Nina phenomena results in wet seasons in India. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through one of its model has shown the gradual death of El Nino and consequent rise of La Nina.
As on date the South-West Monsoon has advanced into Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and northern parts of Punjab and Haryana and has entered Pakistan.
The northern limit of the monsoon now passes through Barmer, Jodhpur, Jaipur and Dholpur in Rajasthan, Kanpur, Bareilly in UP, Chandigarh and Amritsar in Punjab. It is yet to cross remaining parts of west UP and enter Delhi.
The deputy director-general of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Dr HR Hatwar says that monsoon is likely to enter Delhi earlier than the schedule.
The monsoon performance till June 25 has been encouraging enough. Though the monsoon has been covering the country in phases as per schedule and is yet to cover the entire country, the distribution of rainfall in places where it has already reached is satisfactory. As per recorded rainfall data 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country received normal to excess rains.
The rainfall distribution pattern becomes more clear from the rainfall over 523 meteorological districts. As per available data 52 per cent of the meteorological districts over the country received normal to excess rains while only 45 per cent of the meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains.