India affluent in 30 yrs: Experts

Written by fe Bureau | Mumbai | Updated: Jun 25 2009, 05:19am hrs
Experts are of the opinion that India is likely to transform into an affluent nation in one generation or in the next thirty years, however for this to happen, there are several roadblocks in the way that need to get cleared.

Speaking at the fourth Emerging Markets Forum in Mumbai, hosted by the Bombay Chambers of Commerce and Industry (BCCI), and partnered by FE, Centennial Group president and CEO Harinder Kohli said, The studies we have carried out and the papers we have presented have taken over 150 country experiences into consideration and it is a scenario analysis and not a predictive one.

The forum would have a total of nine papers on various elements that could take India into the league of transformed nations that have seen a change in affluence over a single generation. India has the potential to grow from contributing 2% of the global GDP to 16% of the GDP by 2039, said Kohli.

However, in these studies the experts have outlined seven intergenerational risks that could seriously thwart the growth potential. It is about India being a marathon runner or a sporadic sprinter. India runs the risk of getting trapped in the middle-income category like a Brazil or Mexico, said Kohli.

Over the three days in Mumbai and a day in Delhi more than 100 experts from the global financial world are slated to attend the forum. The forum intends to act as a platform for communication for the Indian corporates, investors with key policymakers and bureaucrats.

IDFC MD & CEO Rajiv Lall said, Unlike other studies, this one looks at how public services can be delivered to the whole of India inclusively and this would bring in social cohesion which is so important to the sustainable growth.

Through these studies an overriding observation that comes out is that the Indian policy makers need to be proactive and anticipate change in a better manner. Simply being reactive will not help in the cause to take the country into the new level of growth, Kohli added.

The pace of growth and Indias cultural make at the moment indicates that there could be severe income disparity causing political uncertainties and thereby create the inconsistencies, said Centennial Group chairman Gautam Kaji.

The forum will be attended by key players and observers of the Indian economy, such as Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, minister of state for corporate affairs Salman Khurshid.