Paul Collier, author of The Bottom Billion, has written one of the most linked comments [hyperlink] in recent blogospheric history. Posted at Martin Wolf?s quasi-blog, it?s on the food crunch:
* Chinese are eating cows which are eating grain which would otherwise have been eaten by Africa?s poor.
* Americans are turning grain into ethanol which would otherwise have been eaten by Africa?s poor.
* Europeans are banning genetically modified crops, which are Africa?s main hope of growing enough grain to feed its own poor.
* Policymakers romanticise small farmers, when what the world really needs is Brazil-style high-tech Big Agriculture.
What?s interesting is that the policy responses suggested by this analysis generally involve market liberalisation?the elimination of American biofuel subsidies, relaxation of GM regulations, and abandonment of policies that encourage small but inefficient farmers. The solutions adopted by governments, by contrast, have been decidedly illiberal. Ethanol supports continue, and Asian nations have suspended exports and banned food futures trading. Governments are moving in the wrong direction.
The one exception is the first bullet point. Were the African agricultural sector healthier, then market liberalisation could be a boon to the continent. As it stands, however, many poor African nations are net importers of food. There are other points Collier could?ve addressed. Fertiliser… is largely produced from petroleum. This seems to place a long-term constraint on food output, absent some new innovation. Second, expanded agricultural output, especially in places like Brazil, will likely mean deforestation. Forests are valuable carbon sinks, [and this could] exacerbate climate change.
Free Exchange
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