Growth pangs

Written by Saikat Neogi | Updated: Jul 10 2013, 09:39am hrs
While global growth is likely to remain subdued at 3.1% in 2013, Indias GDP is likely to grow by 5.6%, up from 3.2% in 2012, which will be the second fastest amongst the five BRICS nations, shows the latest IMF World Economic Outlook.

However, the current forecast for India is less than the April projections of 5.8% when world output was projected to grow 3.3% yoy. Similarly, sharp revisions are seen for Russia and South Africa, and a moderate revision in case of the US and the Euro area for 2013. Chinas growth this year is likely to remain at last years level

of 7.8% and slightly moderate 7.7% in 2014. Global growth,

however, is projected to recover to 3.8% in 2014.

Weak domestic demand, prolonged recession in Europe and slower growth in several emerging economies will keep the global growth subdued. The report underlines that advanced countries should pursue policies that support near-term growth and medium-term public debt sustainability.

As growth picks up in 2014, advanced economies imports would grow by 4.3% from 1.4% in 2013 and for emerging economies imports would grow 7.3% from 6% in 2013. Interestingly, exports from emerging nations would grow faster at 7.3% in 2014 from 6% this year, which would bode well for India provided it improves its export competitiveness.

Saikat Neogi