The forecast for India is based on assumption that the government will continue non-basmati rice export that was allowed in September 2011 and in anticipation of higher production, the IGC said in
its report. Last month, the IGC had pegged rice exports for India, the worlds second-biggest producer, at 5 million tonne. Rice exports were at 4.1 million tonne
last year. India has kept a target of a record 102.75 million tonne of rice production in 2011-12 crop year (July-June). Basmati rice shipments are allowed at a minimum export price (MEP) of $700 per tonne.
Barring India and Pakistan, the IGC has revised downward rice exports projections for Thailand, Vietnam and the US for this year.
While the shipments from Thailand may drop to 6.7 million tonne in 2012 from 10.6 million tonne last year, rice exports from Vietnam are likely to decline to 6.4 million tonne this year from 7.1 million tonne last year. Similarly, shipments from the US are expected fall to 3 million tonne in 2012 from 3.3 million tonne last year. With regard to global imports, the IGC said it may contract by 7% to 32.2 million tonne, owing to significantly reduced purchases by key Asian buyers, including Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, the global rice output is expected to rise by 3% to 463 million tonne in the 2011-12 marketing year due to increased production in Asias biggest producers China and India. PTI