The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) has said even though there may be some showers in these regions, the total rainfall in August will be deficient by 50 mm or more as against normal levels. Similar conditions will prevail over southern Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The probability of rainfall in these regions in August is about 20 to 40 per cent.
The US based Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) in its 10-day short-term forecast till August 5 has also said that central India, Orissa, north-east India and the Himalayan region may receive some good showers while there will be negligibile rains over rest of the country.
According to ECMRWF, in September, the last month of the season when the monsoon begins its withdrawal course from Rajasthan, the predicted situation is no better.