The world energy production-import-consumption dynamics in the next two decades will be guided by India and China accounting for half the growth of 41% in demand. While the US will be producing 101% of its needs in 2035, substantially up from 69% in 2005, China will overtake the EU as the worlds largest importing region by 2030. The BP Energy Outlook 2035 also shows that Indias energy scenario would not change much from what it is today, and the import dependence will only grow. Though energy production is projected to rise by 112% and consumption by 132% by 2035, oil imports will remain the dollar-guzzler accounting for more than 60% of the net increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas and coal. It is not surprising that gas will see the highest demand growth of 183%.

All this would mean that Indias share of global demand would rise to 7% by 2035, which would be second largest share from the BP Energy Outlook with China having 27%, Russia 5% and Brazil 3%. In fact, Indias 132% demand growth is estimated to be highest among the BRIC nations, much ahead of Russias 20%, and 71% of both China and Brazil. Indias energy production as a share of consumption is slated to drop from current 61% to just 56% in 2035. Interestingly, the BP outlook says that a 25% decline in oil production would be made up by 44% rise in gas production and 116% in coal. So, even in 2035, coal will maintain its dominance with 66% share in production, but renewables will overtake oil by increasing their share from 3% today to 10% in 2035, and the share of oil will drop from 12% to 4%.

Saikat Neogi