The acreage may fall about 15% in the season starting this month, president Dhiren Sheth said in a phone interview from Mumbai on Tuesday. Farmers sowed cotton to a record 12.2 million hectares (30.12 million acres) in 2011-2012, harvesting 34.5 million bales, according to the countrys Cotton Advisory Board. Sheths forecast is more than the 10% decline estimated by the US Department of Agriculture.
A smaller Indian harvest may potentially reduce exports next year, and stem the 53% plunge in futures in New York in the past year. The country wont allow fresh exports this season as it builds reserves for the domestic textile industry, trade minister Anand Sharma said on Monday.
Due to the flip-flop in export policy, we believe that the next season area might fall, and overall production may get affected, said Ajitesh Mullick, associate vice president for agriculture research at Religare Commodities. The government may put in some limits for exports next year and the total exportable quantity might be lower.
Indias cotton crop in 2012-2013 may fall to 32.3 million bales of 170 kg each from 34.3 million bales this year, according to a USDA report on March 30. Sheth didnt give a production estimate.
India barred all exports on March 5 to secure domestic supplies after shipments surged before the ban to about 9.5 million bales, more than the 8.4 million bale surplus the government estimated. The curbs were partially ended a week later after protests from growers, traders and China, the biggest buyer.
The government is scrutinising about 2.5 million bales registered with the trade ministry prior to the ban, Sharma said.
We are very disappointed and we are going to urge the government to open up fresh exports very soon, Sheth said. Mills can buy cotton and stock it if they want. Why should the government stop exports
Cotton Corporation of India, a state-owned company, will buy 2.5 million bales from farmers at market prices to help domestic mills meet fiber demand, the textile ministry said on April 4.
The May-delivery contract in New York gained as much as 0.8% to 90.17 cents a pound in on ICE Futures US and was at 90 cents in Mumbai. Futures slumped 30% in the past year on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange.
Lower domestic prices may prompt farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka state to switch from cotton to spices such as chilli because of higher prices, Religares Mullick said.
Farmers are likely to switch to competitively-priced alternative crops while seeking to diversify their crop mix and risk in response to Indias topsy-turvy cotton export policies, the USDA said. High prices for peanuts, soybeans and corn may encourage farmers to shift away from cotton in central, western and northern India, it said.