Corn rally to continue on low stock

Written by Reuters | Mumbai | Updated: Aug 1 2010, 04:14am hrs
A rally in Indian corn is likely to have an extended season for another six to nine months on lower stocks, higher intervention prices and hopes an expected export rebound next season will mesh with domestic demand. India's corn prices have risen over 15% since the beginning of June. India's 2009-10 corn output is estimated at 16.68 million tonne, down over 3 million tonne from previous year.

In early June, the government increased intervention price by about 5% to Rs 880 per 100 kg.

Stockists are accumulating on hopes of a price rise in the offing because of the deficit when the new marketing year begins in October, traders said.

We expect massive rallies in the next 3 to 9 months, said Anand James, a senior analyst with Geojit Comtrade. Prices can rise up to Rs 1,500 in the period, he added.

The major support is likely to come from an expected rebound in exports in the 2010-11 crop year, trade said.

There could be a 100% rise in exports in the next season, said an official with a trade association.

USDA in a recent report has estimated India's corn exports at 2 million tonne in 2010-11 from 1 million tonne in 2009-10.

India is the world's fifth biggest corn producer and a net exporter, though it ships only a small quantity ranging from 1-3 million tonne each marketing year.

Global trade is likely to increase to 89.65 million tonne in 2010-11 from 85.91 million tonne in 2009-10, USDA data showed. Indian exports may benefit from the rising demand globally, the trade official said.

The global demand is likely to increase on strong and continuous demand from China, which is seeking large consignments from the US, the major exporter.

Goldman Sachs has raised its price outlook for US corn attributing to demand increase.

India, which primarily supplies to Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal competes with the US on pricing parity. In case of a demand rise, buyers seeking prompt supplies may turn to India, traders said.