The increase will help drive a 30% price increase next year, Paul Gray, a London-based commodities analyst with Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, said at a Brazilian Mining Association conference in Belo Horizonte. The price will hold steady in 2009 and see a small drop in 2010, Gray said.
Chinese imports of iron-ore, the main ingredient in steel, will rise to 565 million metric tonne in 2010 from 386 million now, Gray said. China, the worlds largest steelmaker, is expected to buy 57% of the worlds seaborne iron-ore exports in 2010, compared with about 50% now, he said.
The seaborne iron-ore trade will remain undersupplied for several years, Gray said.
When it balances out in 2010, oversupply will be nominal, he added.