In India, Q2FY15 is expected to see usual seasonal weakness on minutes volume trends. Pricing/yield improvement broadly continues, although it is not clear if there is some impact from seasonality in this quarter. This is in line with Idea Cellular's comments last week. Moreover, the company is still a wait-and-watch on R-JIO.
In the upcoming round of spectrum renewals, in the six circles where Bhartis 900 Mhz spectrum is up for renewal, the company also has 1,800 Mhz to fall back on, hence, downside from business continuity risk is limited.
On data, the strong momentum in the previous quarter revenues should continue. Data pricing too, remains stable. Although, as users start to upgrade to higher data packs, there is automatically a price discount built-in.
On renewals, lack of a longer-term visibility on spectrum that may come up for auctions (outside of renewals) remains a concern. Also, Bhartis view is that the current 900 Mhz/1,800 Mhz pricing differential is perhaps not justified as both bands are now technology neutral and will be increasingly deployed for data and more efficient technologies like 4G.