India’s rice exports are forecast to fall 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027 as lower supplies and rising prices curb shipments. USDA expects production to drop 4.5% to 147 million tonnes in 2026–27, amid El Niño-related weak monsoons and reduced planting. Retail prices are up 10% year over year; the government plans to release stocks to ease pressure. India supplies over 40% of global rice exports.