The US Presidential election 2016 is nearing its finale. The much-publicised race to succeed Barack Obama at the White House has seen three Presidential debates; debates which garnered more attention for Donald Trump’s unique antics and Hillary Clinton’s meme-worthy expressions than the actual policies. Trump, who had started his campaign with the promise of building a wall across the Mexican border to prevent immigrants, went on making some of the most controversial and even ridiculous of statements of any Presidential candidate till date.
Meanwhile, Democrat Hillary Clinton, former First Lady and Secretary of State, who has had the open support of President Barack Obama and most of US media, did not exactly sit back on her haunches as she carried on a feisty campaign, but she definitely must have enjoyed watching the Trump campaign implode. But even as her worries were being mitigated to a large extent by the Republican candidate himself, Hillary was in trouble for the use of a private server to send e-mails during her stint as Secretary of State. Although Hillary claimed that the emails weren’t classified, the FBI deemed that they were. The latest setback that is really hurting her on this front is that the FBI has re-opened this case after her aide’s laptop yielded some more ‘incriminating’ emails.
So, how close is the race?
Over the period of an year of campaigning, Trump has gone from being a multiple times bankrupt businessman-reality tv star to being a Republican nominee to matching former First Lady Hillary Clinton, shot by shot in the US Presidential elections 2016.
And yet, his chances seemed extremely low when a series of leaked controversial statements and allegations of sexual assaults grabbed the eyeballs. This had led to Hillary leading by 9 points in mid-October.
However, the Democrat former Secretary of State’s campaign hit another roadblock as the FBI decided to launch a reinvestigation into her private server email case. And aye, this had its own consequences. The Washington Post poll, that had given Hillary a 12 point lead about a week ago, showed Trump leading by 1 point at a time.
Although, the New York Times still gives Hillary a 3 point lead. Though, an up to date poll tracker shows that the Democrat is leading at 46 %, while Trump is trailing her dangerously with 44%.
Now, the good American people will go to cast their vote on November 8 to choose between a former First Lady with the support of President Obama and a blonde billionaire. Although Hillary is still considered as the favourite to win the elections, it has to be noted that these are the beliefs of the same experts who did not see the Brexit coming.
The news that the FBI had reopened the case has ignited a new life within Trump, who seems to have taken the Christmas gift early. The FBI now has warrants to look for recently discovered emails that belonged to a top aide of Clinton, Huma Abedin. Now, it cannot be guaranteed that the investigation will get over before the polling day, which means Hillary will be walking into the elections with a sword of doubt and allegatons hanging over her head.
Although some the polls have shown Clinton to be as ahead as 14 points before this week, and some still show her ahead of Trump, it must be noted that the race has now become much closer with the days leading to the polls being numbered.
Trump is known to conjure controversies and myths out of thin air, and with all this suspense surrounding Mrs. Clinton, and two days to go before the elections, it might just work for Trump.
The truth being told, with the polls running this close, anything is possible.
Now, what both the parties need to actually watch out for, are the swing states. These are the states that shift their allegiance from time to time. The states like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Virginia and even Ohio have the ability to change the tide. As of now, neither Trump, nor Clinton have managed to gain a significant lead in these states.
Why are the US Presidential election polls so close?
To be quite honest, the common folk see this a fight between Godzilla and Mothra. Both of these candidates are highly unpopular among the public and even withn their own parties. Quite a few significant Republicans have blatantly refused to endorse Trump while polls showed that just about half of Bernie Sanders’s supporters are backing Clinton. NYT and CBS polls show that both candidates suffer from the public’s trust in them.
What are the odds in the American presidential election?
Clinton has ben ,hands down a favourite to win the elections since the beginning of March. But Trump has, somehow managed to catch up to her as all his Republican rivals dropped out of the race, one by one.
How does the demography affect the US election?
Race has always played a very important part in the US election. According to recent polling, just 17 % of Hispanics and black people are in support of Donald. Even age, gender and education play their parts in the US Presidential elections. Polls show that men and other white people support Trump, while the women and ethnic communities support Hillary.
This could be quite important as the Hispanic people are atleast 1/5th of the entire population in the four important swing states.
Education is one more thing that can swing the election to one side with ease. And Trump seems to have recognized that. And without much hesitation, he did say that he loved the poorly educated. Trump has the support of 44% of all High School graduates who do not have a higher level of education, while Hillary has managed only 36.
Now, this election has been marred with controversial statements and allegations over sexual assaults and illegal emails among other things. And this has come from both the sides. Even with the ridiculousness of Trump, Hilary hasn’t quite managed to take advantage and control over the situation. And that itself shows, how indecisive the American people have been, this election season.