PMEAC's C Rangarajan lowers GDP growth estimate to 5.3 per cent for FY14

Reuters Posted online: Friday, Sep 13, 2013 at 0000 hrs
New Delhi : Listing fiscal and current account deficits as challenges facing the economy, Prime Minister's key advisor today lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and suggested oil subsidy reduction to keep public finances under check.

Releasing the Economic Outlook for 2013-14, PM's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan listed host of measures like easier FDI norms, increasing coal output and stable tax regime to boost growth in medium to long term.

"The council is looking at a rate of economic growth of 5.3 per cent in 2013-14, lower than that indicated (6.4 per cent) in its April 2013 review," it said, adding that currency related disruptions has impacted the momentum of recovery.

RBI too had earlier lowered its growth projection for this fiscal to 5.5 per cent from 5.7 per cent. The GDP grew by 5 per cent in 2012-13.

Related: Keeping fiscal deficit target a challenge, says PMEAC

Terming high Current Account Deficit (CAD) as the "main concern at present", Rangarajan said it was expected to come down to USD 70 billion or 3.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, from USD 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent a year ago.

However, he added that in view of the likely decline in net capital inflows, India will have to draw down its reserves by around USD 9 billion to bridge the CAD.

On the government's resolve to lower fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14, Rangarajan said "containing (it) within the budgeted estimate could be a challenge" and suggested expenditure compression to stick to the target.

Related: RBI to keep monetary policy tight till rupee stabilises, says PMEAC

"Discretionary expenditure budgeted may need to be compressed, and subsidies restructured, in the remaining months of the financial year in a growth friendly manner to limit fiscal slippages," Rangarajan said.

The PMEAC expects the agriculture and industry to grow by 4.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively. The growth of services sector is pegged lower at 6.6 per cent in current fiscal.

Related: Drawdown on foreign reserves to fund CAD

Noting that the government's fiscal deficit in first four months has reached 63 per cent, Rangarajan said there is a need to have adjustment in domestic prices of petroleum products to contain expenditure.

"All that required is to have adjustment in the domestic prices (of petroleum products)," he said adding this could be done by one time increase followed by monthly hikes of a lower order.

As regards rupee, Rangarajan hoped "at the current level (it) is well corrected. Stability is returning to the foreign exchange market. As capital flows return, and as CAD begins to fall, this tendency will strengthen".

However, he added the current stance of monetary policy should continue until stability in rupee is achieved.

The rupee has lost over 20 per cent since April and had touched a life time low of 68.86 to a dollar on August 28. It is currently trading at 63.44 to a dollar.

Rangarajan said March end WPI inflation will be at 5.5 per cent as rupee depreciation could harden commodity prices.

The retail inflation in August stood at 9.52 per cent, while the WPI numbers in July was at 5.79 per cent.

Much of the monetary policy easing would depend on developments in the forex market, Rangarajan said adding "controlling CAD remains main concern at present".

The trade deficit is projected to come down to around USD 185 billion in 2013-14, from USD 195.7 billion in 2012-13.

Elaborating on the growth prospects, Rangarajan hoped that the economy would perform better in the second half of 2013-14 as the impact of measures taken by the government over the last six months would become visible.

The GDP growth in April-June quarter fell to a four year low of 4.4 per cent.

The Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI), Rangarajan said, has cleared 209 projects worth Rs 3.84 lakh crore.

Following are the highlights of the Economic Outlook 2013-14 released by Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan today:

* GDP growth for 2013-14 lowered to 5.3%, from 6.4% in April

* Growth likely to pick up in the second half of 2013-14

* Agriculture growth pegged at 4.8%, industry at 2.7%

* Services growth to decelerate to 6.6%, from 7.% in 2012-13

* March-end inflation projected at 5.5%

* Current Account Deficit (CAD) main concern, may come down to USD 70 billion or 3.8% of GDP

* Trade deficit projected at USD 185 billion

* Gold imports seen at USD 38 billion

* Net capital inflows to come down to USD 61.4 billion from USD 89.4 billion

* Rupee at current level is well corrected, will strengthen with improvement in CAD

* Containing fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP a challenge

* Expenditure compression, subsidy restructuring necessary to avoid fiscal slippages

* Current monetary policy stance should continue till rupee stabilises

* Liberalise FDI norms, resolve tax issues, focus on coal, power sector to promote growth

* Domestic savings rate to increase to 31%, from 30.2% in 2012-13

* Investment rate to decline to 34.7% of GDP from 35%