The indices bounced back after being in the oversold condition as the Sensex gained 1.65% in the last week and the Nifty ended 1.79% higher. Among the sectors, the BSE Reality sector was the largest gainer ending 4.70% higher and was followed by the BSE Metals index which gained 4.07%.
The indices ended lower after witnessing profit taking in the last week. The intermediate uptrend, which had started on the August 19 and had witnessed a strong rise in the past nine weeks, is now looking for a pause.
In the last week I had discussed about the weekly resistance of 17,200 for the Sensex and 5,100 for the Nifty. These levels are important resistance levels as indices have drifted lower towards their first supports of 16,622 for the Sensex and 4,920 for the Nifty.
The indices ended marginally lower in the last week in line with the US markets as the Sensex lost 0.29% and the Nifty ended 0.34% lower. Among the sectors, investors were seen shifting to the defensives as the BSE Healthcare sector was the largest gainer ending 7.11% higher and was followed by the BSE FMCG sector which ended 1.74% higher.
The indices were in a run away mode as the Nifty zoomed past the 5,000 level on Thursday, but closed just below it as investors and traders looked for profits. The Sensex gained 2.93% and the Nifty ended 3.03%.
The indices broke out of the strong resistance zone as the Nifty closed past 4,750 and the Sensex past 16,000. The next target for the Sensex is at 17,215 and 5,100 for the Nifty.
The indices took a support at their 20 DMA after declining for four days in the last week and bouncing back smartly on Friday. The volume action was mixed as we saw big declines with strong volumes on Monday and Tuesday followed by low volumes on Wednesday and Thursday.
The indices improved for the second successive week as trading volumes improved for the first time in a number of weeks. The indices gained on all the days in the last week as the Sensex is headed towards the first resistance 16,165 and the Nifty towards the resistance of 4,800.
The indices swung up and down throughout the week and were alternating just above the strong support from the weekly trendline drawn from the major bottom attained in March.
The Sensex and the Nifty dipped below their intermediate downtrend targets on two days but closed well above these targets indicating that the intermediate uptrend which had started on the July 13 is still intact.
The indices corrected for the first time after witnessing a strong rise since July 13, 2008. The volume action in the last week was bearish as we saw low volume on up days and high volumes on down days.
The indices ended higher in the last week as the Sensex closed above the June highs and also recorded a 52 week new high. The Nifty has yet to close past the June highs of 4,693.20. The trading volume remains a matter of concern.
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The indices ended higher for the second successive week as they moved closer to their June highs. A close past the June highs of 15,600 by the Sensex and 4,693.20 by the Nifty will confirm that the major uptrend is intact and higher levels will be seen.
Except for the Chinese stock markets, all the other markets around the world are on the verge of dropping into an intermediate downtrend or are in an intermediate downtrend
If the indices remain subdued ahead of the budget and the expectations of traders and investors is less, than we would have a possibility of a strong rise after the budget.
Momentum on the downside has been strong and unless we see an equally strong rise in the next intermediate rise, the recent intermediate tops will be difficult to cross
As many stocks have dropped into an intermediate downtrend in the last week, the indices could follow suit if pivitols also start to drop into a fresh intermediate downtrend