Indian economy: 'Acche din (Good days) are here!'

Fri Jun 13 2014, 19:52 hrs
Some signs of improvement are visible in the Indian economy now, with factory output growth rebounding to 13-month high of 3.4 per cent in April and retail inflation easing to 8.23 per cent in May on account of falling prices of essential food items. Here are some moot points to ponder: The growth in IIP was driven by a robust performance in capital goods component. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Some signs of improvement are visible in the Indian economy now, with factory output growth rebounding to 13-month high of 3.4 per cent in April and retail inflation easing to 8.23 per cent in May on account of falling prices of essential food items. Here are some moot points to ponder: The growth in IIP was driven by a robust performance in capital goods component. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
The growth in capital goods may continue to surprise on the pside in the next couple of months attributable to a positive base impact. (Image credit: Reuters) Read full text
The growth in capital goods may continue to surprise on the pside in the next couple of months attributable to a positive base impact. (Image credit: Reuters) Read full text
The growth rate in electricity sector at 11.9% was entirely unexpected. (Image credit: Reuters) Read full text
The growth rate in electricity sector at 11.9% was entirely unexpected. (Image credit: Reuters) Read full text
However, it is observed that during General Elections, Electricity sector performs better. In Apr'04 the sector grew by 10.3% and in Apr'09 6.7%, respectively. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
However, it is observed that during General Elections, Electricity sector performs better. In Apr'04 the sector grew by 10.3% and in Apr'09 6.7%, respectively. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
But the month after election, the growth had slumped (May'04 the growth slowed down to 3.1% and in May'09 to 3.0%, respectively). (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
But the month after election, the growth had slumped (May'04 the growth slowed down to 3.1% and in May'09 to 3.0%, respectively). (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Thus, there may be moderation in growth rate of Electricity sector in May'14 and Jun'14. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Thus, there may be moderation in growth rate of Electricity sector in May'14 and Jun'14. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
What is perplexing is the significant weakness in consumer non-durables sector that was supposed to perform better driven by a strong growth in export intensive sectors like apparel. The good thing regarding the decline in CPI was the perceptible decline in housing inflation from 9.7% to 9.2%. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
What is perplexing is the significant weakness in consumer non-durables sector that was supposed to perform better driven by a strong growth in export intensive sectors like apparel. The good thing regarding the decline in CPI was the perceptible decline in housing inflation from 9.7% to 9.2%. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Also, the other heartening signal is that inflationary expectations as per RBI survey has declined perceptibly and if the forecast of rainfall distribution is concerned, it is likely to closer to LPA in areas that are rain-fed and vice-versa. For example, rainfall in north-western India, that is the wheat granary will receive 85% of rainfall, as also the large food grain stocks will help mitigate. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Also, the other heartening signal is that inflationary expectations as per RBI survey has declined perceptibly and if the forecast of rainfall distribution is concerned, it is likely to closer to LPA in areas that are rain-fed and vice-versa. For example, rainfall in north-western India, that is the wheat granary will receive 85% of rainfall, as also the large food grain stocks will help mitigate. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
If this forecast spans out and if housing inflation trajectory declines further CPI may inch closer to 7% by Nov'14. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
If this forecast spans out and if housing inflation trajectory declines further CPI may inch closer to 7% by Nov'14. (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Regarding IIP, a moderate recovery is expected in the next couple of months, until a proper full-fledged recovery takes place beyond Sep'14. (The report has been authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Adviser, Economic Research Department, State Bank of India.) (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
Regarding IIP, a moderate recovery is expected in the next couple of months, until a proper full-fledged recovery takes place beyond Sep'14. (The report has been authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Adviser, Economic Research Department, State Bank of India.) (Image credit: PTI) Read full text
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