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MUMBAI, APRIL 6: India's economy is expected to expand 6-7 per cent in the current fiscal year giving companies the confidence to invest in new capacities to meet robust demand, an ICICI Bank corporate survey showed on Wednesday.
About one hundred large companies, which participated in the survey, believed interest rates would remain stable in the next one year. The central bank is expected to announce its monetary policy later this month.
"The economy is witnessing a strong capex cycle and India Inc. has large investment plans," ICICI Bank said in its report.
"One can also infer from the survey that high growth in expected sales will generally be fueled by investment growth of more than 20 per cent."
Most companies will fund their expansion plans by raising debt, mainly through bank credit and cheaper overseas loans, it said, adding that internal accruals will also play a role.
India's economy, Asia's fourth-largest, is estimated to have expanded 6.9 per cent in the past financial year that ended on March 31. In the year before, the economy grew 8.5 per cent, the fastest in nearly 15 years, as the best monsoon in a decade boosted farm output.
Agriculture generates more than a fifth of India's gross domestic product (GDP), but provides a livelihood to nearly two thirds of its billion-plus people, making it a strong demand driver.
Manufacturing, which contributes nearly a quarter of GDP, expanded 10.4 per cent in the year through the October-December quarter, accelerating from 9.3 per cent in the July-September quarter on increased demand from rural consumers.
The services sector, which accounts for nearly half of GDP, rose 8.8 per cent led by the booming tourism and telecoms sectors, picking up from 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter.
About 47 per cent of the respondents in the survey expected revenue growth from sales at between 15-30 per cent in the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2006, while 15 per cent of participants projected more than 30 per cent growth.
"Large corporates are more bullish on India's growth story," ICICI Bank, India's second-largest bank, said in the survey report.
To meet the rising demand for goods, 40 per cent of the respondents are looking at an investment growth of more than 20 per cent over last year's level, while 32 per cent expects 10-20 per cent growth, it said.
"Around 45 per cent of the corporates are planning to borrow more than 10 per cent over last year levels."
The survey, which included sectors such as construction, machinery, metals and services, showed that 77 per cent of the respondents felt that the rupee would appreciate to more than 43.50 per dollar this year from the current 43.79.
The rupee dropped 0.11 per cent in fiscal 2004/05, after an 8.7 per cent gain in the previous year as the central bank reined it in from a five-year peak in early February.
The survey showed that 50 per cent of the exporters have left more than 50 per cent of their receivables unhedged, while only about 10 per cent have hedged more than 75 per cent of both their payables and receivables. |