Jayalalitha's action is seen as a grave insult to Sonia which could result in the Congress snapping electoral links with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. If that happens, Jayalalitha may have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Congress is of course riding piggy-back on the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, a fact which may explain Jayalalitha's arrogance. But it has pockets of influence which would tilt the scales in a number of constituencies in the state.

The votes the Congress could get for the alliance do not number more than 65,000 in any constituency but they will be crucial, as the 1998 election results' analysis shows.

If, as expected, voting pattern in 1999 broadly follows that of '98 and the miniscule core support of the Congress remains with the party,Jayalalitha's pique will result in the AIADMK missing a winning chance in the following constituencies in Tamil Nadu: Sriperumbudur, Chengalpattu, Tirupattur, Arakkonam, Cuddalore and Krishnagiri.

This is clear from the key figures on number of votes secured by different parties in '98 in these constituencies which are reproduced below.

Sriperumbudur - AIADMK: 3,26,528; DMK: 3,02,733; Congress: 64,944

Chengalpattu - AIADMK: 3,29,239, DMK: 3,06,323; Congress: 24,968

Tirupattur - DMK: 3,22,990; AIADMK: 3,22,716; Congress: 28,905

Cuddalore - AIADMK: 3,09,985; TMC: 2,82,856; Congress: 40,603

Krishnagiri - AIADMK: 3,15,762; TMC: 2,66,413; Congress: 35, 229