On the fiscal problem, which it correctly defines as the root of most problems, it says that with the exception of the success achieved in 1991-92, under the pressure of the balance of payments crisis, little substantive progress has been made. With improvements alternating with setbacks, says the Survey, ``the position today is not significantly better than in 1991-92.''

Indeed, figures released recently show that, till December, the government's fiscal deficit had already reached around 81 per cent of that targeted for the full year. And though the government is likely to be able to more or less achieve its fiscal deficit target for the year when it finally closes its books on March 31, this will be thanks to somesubterfuge. Over Rs 7,000 crore are to come by pressuring public sector units to buy the government's shares in other PSUs, and the increase in GDP figures due to a change in methodology will also help.

The Survey also admits, as Smadja was foolhardy enough to suggest late last year, that the Balance of Payments scenario is a bit worrisome. While the overall contraction in world trade has hit India's exports, and is likely to remain that way in the short term, what is more worrying is the sharp fall in investments coming in from abroad. Just $880 million of direct as well as portfolio investment came into the country in the first nine months of the year, as compared to $4.3 billion in the same period last year. And while the Survey tries to show that this is due to the fact that portfolio investments in the entire world have fallen because of the East Asian crisis, the fact is that over a billion of this is accounted for by the fall inFDI. With government finances under severe strain, and populistexpenditures rising unabated -- electricity subsidies have risen four-fold in the last seven years -- the Survey points out, as it does year after year, things have reached unsustainable levels, resulting in less funds available for spending on either the social sector, or on infrastructure. All infrastructure industries put together, for example, grew by a pitiable 2 per cent this year, as compared to 9 per cent just 5 years ago.

Taking off from what Sinha has been saying, and the severity of the problem, the Survey says that it is time to reconsider the issue of putting a constitutional limit on the amount of deficit that a government can incur. It also points out that the gargantuan task of decontrol and de-bureaucratisation remains. Whether this will result in any major sweeping slashes in red-tape, however, remains an open question. The Survey, for example, says that reservation of production of certain items for the small-scale sector is a form of investment control, and suggests that the Govt will bedoing something to remove it.