The FM does seem to want to return to North Block. The direct tax structure is unchanged although, when convenient, the personal income tax exemption limit and the standard deduction will both be hiked. Meanwhile, let’s keep capital markets happy by extending the long-term capital gains exemption by three years. Let’s keep Central government servants happy by merging 50 per cent of DA with basic pay. And since India Shining-type consumers seem delighted with free imports of gold and silver, let’s hike their free baggage allowance to Rs 25,000.

Halving the Central component of stamp duty should also please them. Everyone likes lower compliance costs associated with taxation. So, following the mini trend, simplify returns and registration for service tax-payers and introduce e-filing of excise returns and self-assessment for customs. That doesn’t mean one has to listen to everything Kelkar said. He said procedural simplification cannot be delinked from exemptions and tax policy shouldn’t be used to push specific sectors. However, the mini budget set the trend for exemptions and deviation from standardisation. For both customs and excise. No harm in continuing with this trend for power projects or shipping companies. The surprise is not that the midi budget has these. The surprise is that there aren’t many more.

Any budget is fundamentally about revenue and expenditure. Big-ticket policy changes aren’t a budget’s core. But nothing can be done about downsizing government expenditure, particularly of the government employee variety. That’s one lesson of the Rajasthan elections. If all reference to reports of the Expenditure Reforms Commission has disappeared from the 2003-04 proper budget, how do you expect it to figure in a midi budget? It is entirely fortuitous that food subsidy is down because food stocks are down. Plus capital expenditure hasn’t increased and GDP growth in 2003-04 is phenomenal.

If anything, with Central Statistical Organisation lowering the base for 2002-03 further, the finance minister could have claimed more than 8 per cent GDP growth in 2003-04. Perhaps he wants to keep some slack for the maxi budget and 7.5-8 per cent will do for midi. Hence, the net effect is 4.8 per cent fiscal deficit/GDP and 3.2 per cent revenue deficit/GDP ratio for 2003-04. Temporarily, the fiscal deficit scenario is shining. As is inflation at 4-4.5 per cent.

The problem is, not everyone believes India is shining. Several people believe India is not shining everywhere. Certainly not in agriculture. And notwithstanding Planning Commission’s new figures, certainly not in employment generation. Therefore, there must be big-ticket policy initiatives about agriculture, cooperatives and small-scale entrepreneurship. But the Centre can’t do much about a second Green Revolution. And in an era of reforms, the government has no business telling banks what to do and whom to lend. But since the general interest rate can’t be reduced, what with high deficits and high rates on small savings, let’s have special rates for tea and agriculture. After all, die-hard reformers who distrust priority sector lending are rare. Not that this will solve the agricultural credit or Kisaan Credit Card problem. How about a committee?

For the sake of health, how about some more AIIMS and accelerated drinking water projects? In line with the mini budget, how about some funds? Budgetary provisions aren’t necessary. Remember also that only die-hard reformers believe development finance institutions should be dead. Strengthen IDBI.

Finally, thanks to Madhya Pradesh, we know our national animal is the cow. Plug in a National Cattle Development Board. That’s the midi budget for you. No fireworks. But if you believe in reforms, could have been worse.