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BEIJING, JAN 31: If all goes well, China's plans to carve a bank out of its deposit-flush postal system will help plug a hole in rural financial services by channelling funds back to swathes of the countryside that are starved of credit.
If things go awry, China's heated economy could land itself with another bad lender, setting back the cause of bank reform.
"The possibility does exist for China to create a good postal bank, but the possibility of messing up is equally great, if not greater," said Wang Jun, a financial expert from the World Bank's Beijing office.
The political stakes of getting it right are high: the ruling Communist Party is counting on the bank to help invigorate China's backward rural economy, an imperative that will drive much of the debate at the annual session of parliament in March.
The bank is due to open its doors later this year. At a stroke, it will become China's fifth-largest lender by deposits.
The postal service has been busy laying the groundwork, lending tiny portions of its 1.6 trillion yuan ($206 billion) in deposits to rural clients to test its systems. Hitherto, it has placed most of the deposits with the central bank.
But analysts say Beijing still needs to clarify the mandate and governance structures of the bank before it can embark on the gruelling task of transforming 37,000 basic deposit-taking and remittance outlets into a true financial institution.
If the process is managed well, the postal bank could emerge as an effective conduit for credit, especially to rural and semi-rural areas that are home to nearly two thirds of China's population but get only about one fifth of all loans.
—Reuters |