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Would one of India’s pre-eminent business groups dare go “beyond the point of prudence”, in Ratan Tata’s own words, to become the world’s fifth-largest steelmaker? It is a question that haunts Dalal Street, which has responded to Tata Steel’s $12.2-billion Corus acquisition by sending its share into a tailspin. So, to answer that question by rolling back in history to the founder Jamsetji Tata’s own nerves of steel, or even recollecting Raj-era jokes of Englishmen promising to eat every pound of Tata-made steel fit for railroad usage, would be doing the company’s Indian shareholders a disservice. This is 2007, and they have a simple question: is Corus worth 608 pence a share?
Several numbers can be rattled off to argue it is not. Mittal bought Arcelor at six times its underlying earnings. Tata has bought Corus at nine. Tata’s original bid in October last year was 455 pence, significantly higher than Corus’ prevailing price then. Its final bid represents a 68% premium. If Tata shareholders don’t already have their hearts in their mouths, hear this: four years ago, Corus was reportedly trading at under 10 pence. So, should Brazil’s Companhia Siderurgica Nacional be having the last laugh? What does Tata see in Corus that other investors don’t? The simplest answer, perhaps, is that the group had little choice. With a 100-million-tonne-plus giant in Mittal, it had to buy its way into the global big league, any way, or give up steel—which the world’s ‘lowest-cost steelmaker’ would understandably be loath to do. That big capital is backing the deal is a sign that its edge can indeed be leveraged, and more. As a Tata insider put it, if 455 pence was a good price for Corus, 608 pence is good for Tata-Corus as a combine—in gestalt rather than a mere sum of parts. This sort of talk bewilders outsiders. But it also sends out a plea for patience. It is unfair to place premature estimates on synergies that only Tata’s strategists are privy to. Sufficient details are not known on what the company might achieve a few years into integration, to acquit itself. All that can be said is that this buyout is a definitive moment not just for Tata Steel, but for the whole of India Inc. |