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Sometimes, a collective sigh of relief after a brief period of nervous tension can have a salutary effect. And so it is hoped will happen, now that YV Reddy, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has revealed a foot less eager to press the economic brake pedal than many had feared. With talk of inflation raging, his restraint— there’s no other description for a mere 25 basis points upping of the repo rate—is perhaps the clearest sign yet that he takes the central bank’s independence quite seriously. This is good. When the notion of monetary independence first gained currency in India in 1997, around the time that the fiscal finesse of P Chidambaram’s ‘ways and means advances’ were being debated furiously, it was not clear if the idea would be able to prevent a repeat of the pre-election over-tightening episode of the mid-1990s. Well, if this has been a test, the RBI has come good.
If there’s a broad message to be read into the policy, it is this: Reddy is confident of the state of the Indian economy. Needless to add, it has taken some help from the government, which recently took several supply-easing measures against inflation. Notably, the RBI has wielded no direct tool, opting instead to increase the cost of credit through the influence of its own participation in the market for short-term debt. This is in conformity with its well-conveyed stance since 2004—a phased withdrawal of what it delectably called its ‘monetary accommodation’. Earlier hikes had already brought about a sharp decline in the liquidity overhang, and with that much less money splashing up around the edges, the RBI now expects a better transmission of its monetary policy. In all, it has sought to reassure markets that transmission lags will not result in a chain-smash-up many months ahead, a horror scenario with all the hikes suddenly slamming into effect together.
Still, an economy growing at 9% will not hum along in quite the same manner as an economy growing at 6%, and the RBI’s caution in specific credit segments is therefore welcome. The raising of loan provisioning requirements should cool down these segments, even as heavier risk weightages on some assets leads commercial banks to pad up their capital-adequacy cushions against probable defaults. The ripple effect on the wider market for assets is hard to assess, given that external flows count for so much now (and S&P’s re-rating will draw more dollars). All in all, a fall in either business or investor sentiment is unlikely. |