The art of crisis management

Be smart and pass on the Kashmir problem to US and UN

Subhash Agrawal

We are fighting an unequal enemy, if only because of their vast Alice-In-Wonderland quality. In response to the attack on India’s Parliament, Ikram Sehgal, a Pakistani analyst says that “There is everything to gain and everything to lose in the shadow of possible nuclear conflagration, but the Hindu civilization can be obliterated almost in its entirety and the Muslim civilization only partly.” General Abdul Rashid, the official Pakistani spokesman, dismisses the tragic act as an Indian-staged gimmick, a thesis echoed by Pakistani defence expert, Shirin Mazari, and by ex-ambassador Mahdi Masud. And Ahmad Kamal, former Pakistani ambassador to the UN, fulminates that “the Indian regime is fundamentalist and racist” and needs to be hauled up in front of world court. Why, because “the BJP advocates and practices ethnic purity against Muslims.”

Escaping from reality has now become second nature in Pakistan, even by its liberal set, whatever that means in their context. And demonising the BJP, aided by our own independent press, helps. Initiated by General Ayub and pushed aggressively by General Zia, extreme rhetoric about India is the stock-in-trade of Pakistani opinion makers, resulting in scornful dismissal of anything we say. Just watch Pakistan TV or read their newspapers. With few exceptions, the bulk of the Pakistani sentiment is always the following: India is conducting carnage and pillage in Kashmir, India is not reconciled to the creation of a sovereign Muslim state in South Asia, and India is maligning the heroic freedom struggle in Kashmir.

State-run PTV routinely portrays Hindus as sly, devious or cowardly, and Indian rituals and lifestyles are caricatured to a point that it would be laughable if it were not so insidious. All this has not only created an enemy image and reinforced negative stereotypes in the collective psyche of average Pakistanis, it has also taken a toll on their literature. Check out recent Pakistani fiction: a recurrent theme is the Crusades and the expulsion of Muslims from Spain in the 15th century. Pakistan is living in some weird medieval universe where machismo, hatred and irrationality dominate much discourse and where the world is turned upside down. It is our everlasting tragedy to be located next to this maladjusted delinquent. We cannot change geography but we can rid ourselves from perpetual insecurity. And we do it by turning our strategy around.

Why not invite third party mediation along with international observers and media to Kashmir? Past experience shows — including recently when General Musharraf had his two months under the sun — that the more the western world interacts with Pakistan, the less it likes it. Right after 9-11, I started compiling a file on the international media’s portrayal of Pakistan. By mid-October, there were already over a hundred major pieces, all but one extremely negative of Pakistan. And that single piece was written by an ex-State Department type, now a paid PR man for Pakistan. By November, I gave up altogether. There was just too much coverage about Pakistan’s jehadi culture, Taliban connection and venom-spewing madrassas. Even, and finally, about Pakistan’s official albeit clandestine support to terrorism in Kashmir.

Past experience also shows that America takes sensible decisions only when pushed to the wall. Americans are the most straightforward and honest people on this planet, but the US as a country is not so benign. America at home and abroad are two different countries. The trick is in using western media to offset any residual Kissingeresque urges in US policy circles, and to make Pakistan a domestic issue in US politics. Let them face the full reality and consequence of Kashmir, which, by the way, holds no oil or other strategic asset.

So, instead of perpetually ducking them, why not use UN resolutions to force US’ hand. Plebiscite and the right of self-government? Fine, you shall have one. But is US ready for another jehadi country? Does the US want to set a precedent on religion-based secession? On the threat of nuclear escalation, who can it trust more, India or Pakistan? Is the US willing to support democracy and free will in Saudi Arabia? Is the US willing to cope with the fallout of all this on Tibet, Palestine, Chechnya or Cyprus? In other words, is the US ready for a drastic re-configuration of the world order?

While American reaction during this latest crisis has on the whole been pro-India, it has also been a dollar short and a day late. Pakistan-inspired terrorism is not just a BJP or electoral issue: we are all outraged. While some US newspapers may find our “hotheds” and “bellicose rhetoric” disquieting, our response has in fact been very measured, given the collection of contemptible acts by Pakistan. Even the Congress has surprisingly risen above its traditional petty partisanship, perhaps an indication of a better set of foreign policy advisers to Sonia Gandhi. But instead of getting mad at the obvious double standards at play, we ought to be smart. We should force the US and the UN to jettison their pretences. Invite them in.

Subhash Agrawal is an analyst of Indian political and business trends and the editor of India Focus, a political risk report for international investors.