‘GPRS entry into India still not imminent’

Neeraja Kumar in New Delhi

General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) is not expected to make its presence felt in India any time soon. Also, data services are not expected to form a substantial chunk of total traffic in India till the year 2005, as per international consultancy Frost and Sullivan.
“Given the global economic scenario, I don’t see GPRS making an entry even next year,” predicts Mr Aditya Sapru, director — India operations, Frost and Sullivan.

GPRS is the 2.5 generation (2.5 G) global system for mobile communications (GSM) technology that beefs up data transmission rates on mobile phones from 9.6 kilobits per second (kbps) — which is currently available on wireless in application (WAP) phones — to 64 kbps.

Since data is transmitted in packets, GPRS gives the subscriber the “always on” Internet advantage at no extra cost. The subscriber has to pay only for the time taken to upload or download information.

While GPRS is currently available for commercial use, many telecom players worldwide have chosen to stay away from it. In India, BPL is the only company which has announced concrete GPRS plans till date.

According to Mr Sapru, “In the current situation in the industry, telecom companies are concentrating on other things right now.” The over-riding focus of the telecom players will be to hold their ground over wireless in local loop (WLL) and fourth cellular operators, he added.

He doesn’t think that the entry of fresh competition will spur GPRS-based services, even though it will be the inflection point for further rate cuts.

He also feels that data will not be the dominant factor in the Indian context and voice will continue to rule the roost. Data, which constitutes 3 per cent of the total traffic right now will grow to only 25-35 per cent by 2005. Voice, which is 97 per cent to the total traffic right now will continue to be dominant at 65-75 per cent by 2005, he predicted.

Since data access on the move will not be such a major factor, GPRS is not expected to find many takers in India.

He also feels that the oft-quoted figure of 50 million cellular subscribers in India by the year 2005 is a little optimistic, even as he says that the market will grow 2-3 times the current size in the next couple of years. The trigger points for growth will be price drops.
“While the rental should be Rs 250-300 per month, the airtime should be Rs 2.40 for three minutes — five times less than the existing average,” according to Mr Sapru.