A draft for Doha

Overloaded agenda may spoil party

Given the Seattle experience, it is important that the Draft Declaration for the Doha Ministerial has few sections with disagreements. In an attempt to please everyone, the circulated text is unlikely to please anyone. The word implementation, often used in the Doha context, means the Uruguay Round commitments made by both the developed as well as developing countries. It’s not that India’s concerns on implementation are not addressed. Industrial tariffs figure, as does agriculture. Textiles and garments are also included under the implementation umbrella. But globally, there is little support for back-loading to disappear. Hence, with elimination of Multi Fibre Agreement quotas, textiles become an industrial tariffs and safeguards issue. The possibility of higher standards for geographical indications other than wines and spirits is mentioned in the draft, as are the needs of developing and least developed countries in the subsidies agreement. There is also a paragraph on special and differential treatment. There is no mention of core labour standards, except in the Preamble and environmental issues are restricted to the Committee on Trade and Environment.

There is enough to assuage LDCs. Adequate noises have been made about debt, finance, technology transfer, technical cooperation, capacity building and conduct of negotiations. Had this been all, India wouldn’t have been unhappy. But if India and others are unhappy, it is because the agenda has been overloaded. Investment, competition policy, government procurement, trade facilitation and e-commerce are mentioned. On investment and competition policy there are two options — one of negotiations, the other of reference to Working Groups. Which of these is adopted will be left to ministers in Doha. On government procurement and trade facilitation, negotiations are proposed, while on e-commerce, work done in the General Council will be pursued. How acceptable is this draft to 142 members and how much support will India have in resisting it? LDCs have little reason to complain, especially because investment and competition policy provide non-negotiating options. The European Union might be unhappy because environment is not mentioned more strongly. But developed countries should not complain much, since the negotiating option is provided in investment and competition policy. This leaves developing countries. They are divided although India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Egypt have stood firmly against a comprehensive agenda. Unless their interests are more directly addressed, the journey to Doha remains uncertain.