For IMD it’s official now, but ‘normal monsoon’ eludes rural India

Ashok B Sharma

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially declared the current year’s monsoon as the 13th successive ‘normal’ monsoon. But, the country seems to have missed the ‘positive impact’ of IMD’s assessment.

Rural markets have not shown any uptrend nor are the current kharif crop estimates encouraging enough for the agriculture sector to achieve the targeted 4 per cent growth. Hindustan Lever Ltd chairman MS Banga has gone on record saying that rural markets have not shown any positive response to the current monsoon performance, in terms of generating more demand for consumer goods. The current crop estimate states that the kharif foodgrains output has fallen short of the target by 4.50 million tonne. Cotton and sugarcane have also fallen short of the targets. Sugarcane production declined to 280 million tonne from 300 million tonne achieved in the previous year.

The only positive aspect of the current year’s monsoon is that it has bestowed good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. These areas were badly affected by drought for the last two years and rains this year came as a saviour. But, this does not indicate that the distribution of rainfall is better this year.

Rainfall distribution this year has been worse than the previous years. In the current year, north-east India received rains amounting to 94 per of its long period average (LPA) as against 96 per cent of the LPA received in the previous year and as against the expected rainfall of 100 per cent of LPA. In the current monsoon, north-west India received rainfall amounting to 93 per cent of its LPA as against 95 per cent of the LPA received in the previous year and as against the expected rainfall of 100 per cent of the LPA. Though, the peninsular India received marginally more rainfall than the previous year it fell short of the expected rainfall of 96 per cent of the LPA. This year, the peninsula India received rainfall amounting to only 90 per cent of the LPA.

The average cumulative rainfall for the entire country, in the current monsoon period, is 92 per cent of the LPA of 88 cm which is the same as that in the previous year. The IMD had earlier expected that the country would receive rains amounting to 98 per cent of the LPA in the current monsoon.

Since 1999, the monsoon is becoming erratic and undependable leaving large tracts of areas under drought. In 1999, seven met subdivisions received deficient to scanty rains and 28 met subdivisions received normal to excess rains. In 1999, 33 per cent of the meteorological districts received scanty to deficient rains and 67 per cent of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rains. In the current year, however, there has been a slight variation. In the current year six met subdivisions received deficient to scanty rains and 30 meteorological subdivisions received normal to excess rains. This year, 32 per cent of the meteorological districts received deficient to scanty rains, while 68 per cent of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rains.

These facts state that there has been only a marginal variation this year over the previous two years as far as rainfall distribution in meteorological subdivisions is concerned. But, the situation is no better as compared to rainfall distribution in the period 1991-93 and 1995-98. The year 1994 was, of course, a bad monsoon year.

The rainfall distribution in the current year is not better than the previous two years. The only difference is that in the previous two years there was contiguous patches of rainfall deficient areas. This year patches of rainfall deficient areas are seen scattered all over the country. The IMD has already identified Arunanchal Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Assam, Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and west MP as rain deficient areas. Besides, there are patches of rainfall deficient areas all over the country.

Some patches of rainfall deficient areas are Hanumangarh district in Rajasthan, Broach, Kaira, Panchmahal and Sabarkhantha districts in Gujarat. There are also rainfall deficient districts in West Bengal, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh. Uttaranchal, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, MP, Chattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.