Hubris and brinkmanship

Bluff, bluster and the vision thing

The Agra summit was by no means a “failure”. It was that for those who had unrealistic expectations and were carried away by the bluff and bluster of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf. Anyone who has any familiarity at all with the history of India-Pakistan relations, on the one hand, and Pakistan’s domestic politics, on the other, should have known that a grandiose Agra Declaration would have been difficult to hammer out in just one working day’s interaction. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Mr Musharraf spent a total of eight hours, stretched over two days, talking to each other about the bilateral relationship. An eight-hour day is unlikely to bury all the ghosts of two years of conflict and mistrust. Agra was not Lahore, Mr Musharraf was not Mr Nawaz Sharif. The process of improving India-Pakistan relations during the regime of Mr Sharif began during the tenure of the Congress Party government of Mr P V Narasimha Rao. It received a fillip under the United Front government thanks to the so-called ‘Gujral Doctrine’. Given the enormous goodwill built up by this interaction, it was only natural that Mr Vajpayee could so easily follow up the nuclear tests in May 1998 with a bus ride to Lahore in early 1999. The foundation of the Lahore Declaration was laid over a five-year period of positive bilateral interaction, notwithstanding the escalation of violence by Jehadi groups in Jammu and Kashmir.

However, Kargil destroyed that entire edifice and the man responsible for this wanton act of aggression was none other than General Musharraf. Understandably, then, it should take some time for the relationship to return to the pre-Kargil mode. Mr Musharraf and the hardliners around him assumed that the Jehadi actions in the Kashmir valley had bled India enough to get Mr Vajpayee to seek a bilateral meeting. They are wrong in coming to this assessment. It is this hubris on their part which may have prompted them to dig their heels in at Agra. In the end, it is Pakistan which will emerge the loser if it continues on this self-destructive path of spiting India and spurning her peace offers. Clearly, Kargil was not a good enough reality check for Pakistan. It seems to be asking for a more instructive reality check. A pity.

While Pakistan’s attitude towards the Agra summit was disappointing, the fact remains that in the face of all the odds the very fact that Agra ended with the prospect of more meetings was a positive outcome. There can be nothing better than continuous dialogue. Indian leaders do not engage the neighbourhood as much as they should. It is not just with Pakistan, but with Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and all India’s other neighbours, and there are many more, that should be continually engaged. The Indian prime minister must meet his counterparts in the neighbourhood at least once a year. It is ironical that New Delhi has committed the United States to a timetable of an annual heads of government meeting while it has no time to seek such annual meetings with heads of government in the neighbourhood.

External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh should be complimented for striking the right note at the end of the summit. The statement issued by the government was once again an act of statesmanship. Written in an accommodating language yet firm in stating our desires and interests, the statement defines the contours of the bilateral relationship in the immediate future. Mr Singh should now launch a diplomatic peace offensive in the entire region and among major powers by briefing the nations that matter to India about what happened in Agra. The world must hear the Indian viewpoint and get an authentic account of the summit.

In the meantime, dialogue with Mr Musharraf should continue, though it would be wise to keep an eye on his longevity. There are many around him he himself does not trust and we should remain wary of their machinations, just as much as he should. Agra marked the re-starting of an earlier process. The process still has the energy to remain on track and move forward.

A wider neighbourhood
The hype and hysteria surrounding the Agra summit has resulted in the Indian media largely ignoring the big news from our other, more important, neighbour, China. Over the weekend China not only bagged the 2008 Olympics but also managed to sign up a friendship agreement with Russia. China is all set to join the World Trade Organisation and is busy creating Asia-wide forums which it will dominate. When our foreign policy managers get back to their offices in New Delhi, they should spare some time to figure out what all the action involving China means for us. It could have a more lasting impact on our relations with the outside world than the hype and bluster at Agra.