Post-verdict, introspection is the need of the hour for BJP

Kuldip Nayar

WHATEVER the BJP may say in defence, it has to admit that it has been decimated in the recent state elections. True, the party has had no base at these places. But it fought on its own in West Bengal, supported the AGP in Assam and the DMK in Tamil Nadu and consolidated the opposition against the Communists in Kerala. On top of it, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee went to all the states to campaign for the BJP or its allies.

Even otherwise, the two years of governance at the Centre had given the BJP enough time to implant itself throughout the country, particularly at the places where the party had to find new soil. It has to blame itself for its failure. The party just cannot rise above the parochial agenda which it has been following for decades. After the lapse of some 48 years since independence, it got the opportunity to present itself as an alternative. But it has turned out to be worse than the Congress, more corrupt, more high-handed and more opportunistic.

Few had doubts about the BJP’s communal thinking. But many had imagined that its anxiety to stay in power would make it shed its fundamentalist attitude. It was also assumed that the association with the parties, which had a secular past, would modify the BJP so that it looked a bit liberal.

The result has been to the contrary: the once-secular parties have themselves stopped talking about communalism.

Once Vajpayee imparted the image of liberalism but that impression is diminishing as days go by. He is still more acceptable than others in the BJP. But he is now a pale copy of what he was. That he made no impact on the electoral landscape should have worried him. He is still content with presiding over cabinet meetings, placating the RSS hardcore at lunches and going out of Delhi at the first opportunity.

Even the BJP members have seared into their memories the image of Vajpayee as a semi-retired person who does not want to be disturbed either for cause or captaincy. He was expected to change the party so that it would follow his way of thinking. But it is he who has compromised. If he wanted he could have framed a counter strategy against the RSS, packing the cabinet with persons believing in his philosophy of pluralism. Instead, he has accommodated fundamentalists. The assembly elections should make him and the BJP introspect. Even if they do not want to resile from their Hindutva stance, they have to reckon with the realities of a pluralistic society.

The Muslim electorate, which constitutes 12 to 13 per cent of votes, is solidly against the BJP. They have largely voted against the party. Their five per cent in Tamil Nadu has swung even some marginal seats in favour of anti-DMK candidates.

The BJP cannot afford to wish away the Muslim factor. It exerts influence in some 1,600 assembly constituencies in the states and 200 Lok Sabha seats out of a total of 545 in Parliament. The party, which is opposed to the secular ethos, can never secure a majority in the country. Yet the BJP has not realised that its policies will take it nowhere.

It is a pity that the BJP appears to be writing off Muslims support at a time when some Muslims are seriously questioning their community’s touch-me-not attitude. They have been struck by the fact that the instances of Hindu-Muslim rioting have drastically come down during the BJP’s rule. They wonder if they can do business with the party when they did it with the Congress under whose 45-year rule their plight was no better.

I was surprised to find a naive reaction to the judgment by the Lucknow sessions Judge who dropped criminal proceedings against Home Minister LK Advani, Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi, Sports Minister Uma Bharati and others. The ground enunciated by the judge was that the Special CBI Court trying the case of Babri Masjid’s demolition was constituted without consulting the UP High Court. It was a technical flaw. The BJP should have said that it would issue a fresh notification to overcome it.

The verdict on the Babri Masjid destruction case has come to epitomise fears and hopes of Muslims and liberals in the country. They want to know whether the demolition brigade of Hindu fundamentalists would be squarely punished for their misdeeds. The judiciary itself is on trial. The BJP should have realised it. Instead, the party’s spokesman at Delhi dismisses the idea of fresh notification and goes on to say that even the Congress had withdrawn the cases emanating from the Shah Commission report relating to the excesses during the emergency. Is this a justification? The Congress will pay for what it did then for years to come. Does the BJP want to follow the same path? This is not in the interest of Advani, Joshi and others if they realise the implications. Do they want to be let off on a technicality? The charge of demolition, if not cleared by a law court, will be a millstone around their neck for the rest of their life.

The CBI’s reputation too will be tarnished. It will be alleged that the government had pressured the CBI into abandoning the case. The allegation may have the ring of truth because the agency is under the Personnel Department of the Home Ministry. The question of notification looks like giving the secular elements a rallying point. Even otherwise consider how the BJP has to thwart the pressure which will increasingly build up against the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) it heads. The results of five state elections have put new life in the opposition. The Congress and its allies have some nine states under their control. They are not going to sit idle, particularly when Sonia Gandhi has said that elections are bound to affect the government at the Centre.

The Lok Sabha arithmetic is all right at present. The NDA has, no doubt, a majority. But it can disappear in no time. Suppose DMK chief K Karunanidhi were to come to the conclusion that his party had lost ground because of its alliance with the BJP, he could withdraw his party’s support. By himself, Karunanidhi does not pose any danger. But he has in Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, an intimate friend. Naidu’s 29 members in the Lok Sabha can pull down the NDA format in no time. The fact that the BJP has lost in the non-Hindi speaking states may influence his judgment. At present, he is in the midst of assessing the situation as he has said.

To imagine that the government will easily survive the rest of the term— nearly another three years—is to indulge in a lot of wishful thinking. Many imponderable factors can come into focus at a time when the Vajpayee regime hangs by a slender thread. The next parliament session may show how difficult the BJP’s task is. The Tehelka expose stalled the session for days. The new developments may bring into play other factors. A few individuals may join the NDA. One or two groups can quit. The coalition’s structure will remain shaky.