Tamil Nadu’s record of decisive verdicts may go for a toss

N Madhavan

POLITICAL uncertainty has always been anathema to the people of Tamil Nadu. Ever since Independence the state’s electorate has handed out decisive verdicts which ensured political stability in the state. But the ensuing election may erase this unblemished record and could usher in a phase of instability.

Multitude of factors can be held responsible for this. The primary reason is that Tamil Nadu, for the first time in more than three decades, is about to witness a wave-less election. Even as the campaign comes to an end on Tuesday, no clear trend is visible and the state may see a photo-finish.

Beginning 1977 till 1996, the state has continuously witnessed some sort of a wave and as a result, the outcome has been heavily one-sided with a party or a front bagging absolute majority in the 234-member state assembly.

In 1977 and 1980, there was a wave in favour of AIADMK’s founder M G Ramachandran (MGR). In 1984, MGR contested the elections battling for his life from a hospital in the United States and the resultant sympathy saw him romp home with a huge majority. In 1989, even though there was no wave in favour of any party, the DMK benefited greatly from the freezing of the ‘two leaves’ symbol of AIADMK which had split immediately after the death of MGR.

The 1991 elections saw AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha come to power riding a sympathy wave created by the assasination of Congress leader and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. It was the anti-Jayalalitha wave all the way in 1996 as people overwhelmingly voted the DMK back to power angered by the AIADMK leader’s corrupt and extravagant ways.

But there is no sign of a wave this time, be it in favour of Ms Jayalalitha (consequent to her disqualification) or the incumbent government. In addition, political realignments and emergence of caste-based outfits have resulted in a situation, the cumulative impact of which is unfathomable.

Ms Jayalalitha pulled a coup of sorts when she aligned with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which was till recently part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and a member of the Union government. It immediately gave her an edge as the AIADMK is strong in south Tamil Nadu while the PMK is in the northern parts of the state. She also managed to retain the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) and the Congress within her alliance, despite their initial reluctance to PMK’s entry. Along with the backing of the Left parties, this line up is, no doubt, a formidable one on paper.

But the ‘mega alliance’ does suffer from lack of co-ordination and heart burns at the grass-root level. Ego problems between the Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Ms Jayalalitha have ruled out the possibility of a joint campaign for the front. This has sent a wrong signal to the people that the alliance is not as cohesive as it is portrayed to be. It had witnessed lot of haggling at the time of seat sharing and not all seats that the members of the front are contesting are in their strongholds.

The DMK, stung by the PMK’s exit from its fold, has tied-up with a slew of caste-based outfits in an attempt to neutralise the effect of the AIADMK-PMK combine. The Bharatiya Janata Party is the only other major party in its alliance and, interestingly, the minorities are still with the DMK except in constituencies where the BJP is contesting. Though polarisation and consolidation of votes could, in arithmetic terms, more or less make up for PMK’s loss, the front will have to face the negative fallout of Vaiko’s MDMK walking out of the alliance.

MDMK, a splinter group of DMK led by Mr Vaiko, may not have the wherewithal to win a seat on its own but can play spoilsport in many constituencies where it has a sizeable base. According to poll observers, in the case of a close fight, the MDMK could spike the DMK-front’s chances in about 25 assembly segments.

MDMK apart, the DMK-led front has to contend with a section of the populace which is unhappy with the incumbent government for the steep hike in prices of essential commodities, such as diesel, kerosene, rice, sugar etc. Farmers are upset that their produce is not fetching good price in the market and business volumes across the state has declined due to tight money condition. The DMK-front’s biggest worry is that corruption is not being seen as a major factor at all in this election.

With the poll heading for a close finish, the way the undecided people, who constitute roughly about 10 to 15 per cent of the electorate, swing their vote could be decisive.

As the state goes to polls on May 10, 2001, three options are emerging. Majority for a single party: This appears unlikely as the situation stands today. In the absence of a wave, it will be tall order to expect the AIADMK to win 118 of the 140 seats that it is contesting. The AIADMK, in order to accommodate as many allies as possible, has been forced to contest the lowest number of seats in its history. The DMK stands a better chance to form a government of its own as it is contesting from 167 seats. But even this looks difficult for the reasons enumerated earlier. Even if a party does manage to get a majority of its own, it could at best be a slim one and could be susceptible to instability.

Majority for a front: This looks like a possibility and the state may see the formation of a coalition government. The composition of the government would determine whether the state will be affected or would benefit from power sharing. The assembly may not last its full term.

Hung assembly: This will be the worst thing to happen for Tamil Nadu. One can then expect large-scale post-poll realignments as both the fronts are in ‘a do or die’ situation, more so for Ms Jayalalitha. The unethical practice of horse trading etc., which have not been seen in the state till date, may rear its head and mid-term polls could become a distinct possibility.