| ‘Indian economic growth
to slow down’
Washington, April 26 : THE International Monetary
Fund (IMF) on Thursday said India’s economic growth would slow down
to 5.6 per cent in 2001 from 6 per cent in the previous year and
suggested that it should promote private investment and contain
deficit, which consume half the domestic saving, to remove the growth
impediments.
At the same time it lauded the economic performance of the country
in the face of worldwide slowdown saying it along with China would
give the much needed ‘stability’ to the global economy.
Describing the Budgetary proposals as ‘reinvigorating commitment’
to structural reform, the Brettenwood twin said in its report that
the central challenge to Indian policy makers “remains to sustain
and improve upon the economy’s strong growth during the 1990s to
support meaningful poverty reduction.”
It pointed out that even the Budget suggested the fiscal deficit
might remain high, especially once privatisation receipts were not
taken into account.
“This will require major structural reforms that improve the environment
for private investment and a substantial reduction in the overall
public sector deficit which at 10-11 per cent of Gross Domestic
Products (GDP) consumed one-half of overall Gross Domestic Saving
in 2000-01.”
Talking about India’s heavy reliance on imported oil, the IMF
said the impact of higher world prices on the current account deficit
has been largely offset by buoyant exports and sluggish non-oil
imports.
Inflation too increased sharply in 2000 and early 2001 but “this
appears to have mainly reflected the effects of adjustments in administered
fuel prices, and price pressures have recently begun to ease.”
Despite India’s heavy Reliance on imported oil, says the IMF,
the impact of higher world prices on the current account deficit
has been largely offset by buoyant exports and sluggish non-oil
imports.
The weakness of the rupee and the downward pressure on international
reserves that emerged in 2000 have eased, aided by higher remittances
from expatriate Indians, and the reserve bank of India was able
to lower its bank rate in February and March 2001.
The 2001-02 Budget, says IMF, suggests that the fiscal deficit
may remain high, especially once privatisation receipts are excluded
from the calculations and taking into account the possibility that
activity may be slower than expected.
China’s growth, meanwhile, is expected to slow down from 8 per
cent in 2000 to 7 per cent in 2001 and pick up to 7.1 per cent in
2002, and India’s from 6.4 per cent in 2000 to 5.6 per cent in 2001
but pick up to 6.1 per cent in 2002. The US plunge is drastic-from
5 per cent in 2000 to 1.5 per cent in 2001, picking up to 2.4 per
cent in 2002, according to current projections, it added. (PTI)
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