Coconut growers and oil and copra traders say the price of a coconut in the Philippines, the biggest world market for coconut oil and the nut, is not more than Re 1 and the price of a quintal of copra is Rs 585. The price of coconut oil is not more than Rs 11 a kg. The scene in Indonesia is no different where the price of a quintal of copra works to Rs 530 and the price of coconut oil is a shade over Rs 8. However, the price of a quintal of copra traded in the Kochi market is Rs 2,100 and coconut oil Rs 2,970. Traders argue that even after the 70 per cent duty imposed, it would be cheaper for the importers to bring in coconut oil or copra or the nut from any of these countries.

According to Cochin Oil Merchants Association secretary N Ananthan, the scene in the coming days is indeed going to be very bad. The situation can improve unless the international prices go up or the domestic prices fall, both of which in the present conditions are improbable.

He said that the international prices of copra and coconut oil were far below the domestic prices. The global price of copra was $ 200 and coconut oil $ 300. Unless the State agencies like the STC intervened, the country would witness a flooding of oil and nuts from abroad. Of the total 30,00,000 tonne of coconut oil produced in the world, India's share was a mere 5,00,000 tonne, he added.

The talk of the Government stepping in at times of adversity is not being taken seriously by growers and traders who feel that when the situation favoured Government intervention, precious little was done. The Coconut Development Board, however, sees little threat and sticks to the stand that the oil produced abroad is not edible and so there is not much reason for worry. But sources there cannot say what will happen if large quantities of cheap coconut oil is imported and adulterated.

The other area of worry has been rubber. While the international price of rubber is at par with the domestic price, the import of rubber goods could be cause for worry for both the industries as well as the growers. While India has over 35,000 rubber products, there are over 50,000 products the world over.

The Cochin Rubber Merchants Association feels that 9 lakh growers and 40 lakh of their dependents have been orphaned with the lifting of QRs. Said association president N Radhakrishnan, instead of raising the import duty on rubber to at least 50 per cent in view of the accumulated stock of 1,74,000 tonne by the end of the last fiscal, the government took a wait-and-watch policy. Though the stipulated bound rate duty fixed by the WTO for rubber is 25 per cent, a commodity classified as industrial raw material, WTO also specifies that the bound duty can be raised so as to extend relief to a vast number of people if such imports are likely to affect them adversely.

However, the government seems to have blissfully ignored this, he adds. With the tyre industry looking up to China for importing their tyres and marketing them, the rubber sector is in for worse times. Mr Radhakrishnan fears a deliberate attempt by major companies to import large quantities of rubber and push down domestic prices. If 10 factories import 2,500 tonne each, a small mount for them, the total imports could be 25,000 tonne. This could adversely affect the domestic rubber sector, he adds. Once the prices fall, it would be these very same companies who would buy the domestic produce, he says. There have been such experiences where the big guns raised prices and forced the Centre to allow them import rubber and brought the prices crashing.

As far as the spices sector is concerned there is little cause for worry. The pepper sector's cup of woe is already full with Vietnamese variety pushing down the price of the commodity. The Malaysian season is about to start and then will come the Brazilian season by which time the international prices will have dipped further.