While the rate of demand expansion in the next decade is likely to be slower in the US, substantial demand growth is expected in China as also in the Indian market, World Steel Dynamic managing partner, Peter F Marcus said here on Monday.

Addressing an international conference on `World Steel Market - Today and Tomorrow,' he said China, which witnessed an average annual growth of 9.3 per cent in apparent demand for steel products during 1990-2000, "will become a larger factor on the world steel export market."

India with its 1 billion population was "a wild card" and would "perhaps start to grow at a faster rate," he said.

While China reported an increase in apparent demand for steel products from 53 million tonne in 1990 to 129 mt in 2000, the apparent demand in India rose from 15 mt to 25 mt during this period.

On the global demand this year, the steel expert said there were worries about a recession in the US, a slippage of demand in Japan and reduced growth in Western Europe.

Tata Steel managing director Dr JJ Irani said the domestic industry, facing problems due to lack of consumption demand, needed to adopt new technologies for cost reduction to be competitive in the global market.

Mr Marcus said the country is expected to see a 6 per cent growth rate in coming years to reach a 40 mt apparent consumption by 2010.

In the external front, he said, the global trade in steel increased from about 167 mt per annum in 1990 to about 265 mt in 2000 despite a sharp rise in anti-dumping actions.

Stating that there would be no easing of steel trade restraint in near future, he said the low steel prices both in the world market and domestic markets, may lead to reduced capacity and production.

Secretary general of the South East Asian Iron and Steel Institute, I Bartholomew said the Asian economies, which faced a severe downturn in the steel industry since the financial crisis in 1998, were expected to recover and capture 45 per cent share in the global market by 2005.

The Asian countries currently had a share of about 38 per cent of the global production of 788 mt in 1999, he said, adding the international market was likely to witness an average growth of two per cent in the next decade.

The global steel industry may become more concentrated with further rise in merger and acquisition activities in various parts, Prof D Ameling, chairman of German Iron and Steel Institute, said.