According to the data available with the Cotton Textile Export Promotion Council (Texprocil), cotton yarn exports for the 11-month period to February 2001 are pegged at $1,290 million (Rs 5,914 crore) against the targeted $1,700 million.

The target for the financial year under review was revised from the previous year's target of $1,500 million following rapid strides made by cotton yarn exports in the recent past.

Consequent to the drop in exports, Texprocil has fixed a lower internal target of $1,550 million for the next financial year (2001-02), though the textile ministry preferred a target of $1,850 million.

Cotton yarn contributes around 40 per cent to the total annual cotton textile export basket of around Rs 16,000 crore. India had emerged as one of the biggest cotton yarn exporter in the world with a 25-per cent hold over the global trade. However, a firm projection of cotton yarn exports this year is not possible since pre-shipment endorsements were done away with in the previous Exim policy. The council claims 10 per cent of the total shipments may not come for endorsements. "We are no more the competitive country in cotton yarn exports," says Texprocil chairman T Kannan. "Staying at the top is difficult as the power costs and transaction costs are going up compared to those in other competing countries."Pakistan, Indonesia, China, Bangladesh (currently an importer of Indian cotton yarn) and Vietnam are fast emerging as major players in the global cotton yarn trade, he says.

According to Mr Kannan, the growth in cotton yarn exports in the coming years may not be possible unless some way to contain costs are not resorted to. "We did well till September last but then the markets became volatile following oscillating cotton prices.

"We were offered a 3-5 per cent increase in prices across the markets but this could not be sustained after December when cotton prices dropped. We also fear a cascading effect of the slowdown in the US economy," says Mr Kannan.

To add to the woes, cotton yarn exports to Korea has started falling following the Korean government's anti-dumping duty investigation. The drop was significant in February this year with only 4.81 million kg valued at Rs 57.42 crore being shipped to Korea against the February 2000 shipment of 8.59 million kg valued at Rs 98.88 crore. In the meantime, the Korea Trade Commission (KTC) has extended the deadline for replying to the anti-dumping questionnaire to April 30 for some exporters and May 7 for others.