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Takes two to tango
The governor of the Reserve Bank of India took the cue from the union finance minister and played his part in the two-act play on bank rate reduction staged by the two in tandem. RBI Governor Bimal Jalan was in New Delhi last month and met Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha the day before he went back to Mumbai and announced the first round of 50 basis points rate cut. Many had then predicted that Mr Jalan would follow this up with a second round rate cut by end-March or in early April. This expectation was based on the assumption that the central bank governor may have considered the idea of delinking monetary policy changes from the compulsions of the annual timetable of fiscal policy changes. However, there was a logic to this two-act play that the FM and the governor staged. In part it had to do with the government's decision, following from the recommendations of the prime minister's Economic Advisory Council, to reduce administered interest rates in small savings. In part it had to do with the strategy ofgiving the budget a strong pro-industry reform thrust. Hence, it was a well managed double act.Immediately after presenting his budget speech in Parliament, the finance minister said in his first televised interview on Doordarshan that his fiscal policy initiatives had "created the environment" for the RBI governor to effect a further cut in interest rates. Most expected Mr Jalan to follow suit, but few thought he would do so the very next day. In the event, the deed is done. This, however, is only a facilitating exercise. The real impact of the reduction in the bank rate can be felt on the economy if banks transmit this signals downwards, which some have started doing. But more importantly, the final cost of funds for corporates will remain way above the bank rate floor of 7.0 per cent as long as the market is littered with customers with questionable credit-worthiness of varying proportions. There are few companies which are in fact eligible for funds at such favourable rates. While the RBI has responded to market expectations on rate cut, it must remain equally alive to public concern aboutinflationary pressures. If the rate of inflation is allowed to accelerate any further, it will be difficult for the central bank to stay the course on interest rates. Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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