It has only been cardamom and value-added spices like spice oils and oleoresins that are in an enviable position. While the overall export of spices from April to December 2000 was 141,875 tonne valued at Rs 1,006.64 crore and $222 million, it was 173,885 tonne valued at Rs 1514.71 crore and $ 350.6 million during the corresponding period last year.

This 34 per cent fall in rupee terms and 37 per cent decline in dollar terms have been mainly because of the fall in pepper exports.

Pepper has shown a 63 per cent decline in quantity terms, according to Spices Board sources. Last year, the nine months of the last fiscal, 34,504 tonne of pepper was exported, compared to a mere 12,500 tonne this time. In value terms, the fall has been to the level of 66 per cent. During the nine months of this fiscal, exports have been to the value of Rs 23,813.75 lakh compared to Rs 70,320.29 lakh.

According to pepper exporters, there has been a fall in prices of different contracts, making it difficult for them to digest it. Presently, all the contracts from March to August have been ruling below Rs 10,000. Though this price is one that easily covers the production cost and is profitable to farmers, they have been accustomed to a higher price and expect the prices to go up further. Says IPSTA president Kishor Shamji: ``Farmers are not willing to part with their stocks. Presently, there is a carry-forward stock of 20,000 tonne. With the pepper season already on in India, the production is expected to touch 70,000 tonne. Thus, by the end of this month, there will be a stock of over 90,000 tonne. This will create problems for the farmers as the prices have been ruling lower than that of last year.''

Also, the terminals appear to have been discarded by the growers. Very little of the commodity is reaching the terminals. While some of it is being smuggled out to neighbouring states, farmers are holding back stocks.

According to Mr Vidyasagar, former president of IPSTA, the inherent bullish tendency of the farmer is making him hold back his stock. Over the last two years, exports were good. Most of the farmers have made arrangements for storing pepper which will last for long.

The slight increase in prices has been due to the domestic demand which is likely to go up further. Things do not augur well for pepper farmers. The Vietnam stock has already started arriving. Brazil has a carry-forward stock of 10,000 tonne and production there is estimated to be around 40,000 tonne.

By April-May, the Malaysian crop is expected to enter the market. Estimates are that there will be around 23,000-25,000 tonne coming in from there. The Indonesian stock too should be arriving around that time.

Says Mr Ram Kumar of the pepper division of Tata Tea: ``With the crop doing well all over the world, it is unlikely that the prices will go up. Garbled pepper, which sold at Rs 22,500 on February 15 last year, now sells at 11,600. Pepper which accounted for nearly 45 per cent in the exports basket presently has till December 2000 a share of just 24 per cent.''

Pepper farmers and traders have different estimates of the country's crop this fiscal. Farmers estimate a production decline between 10 and 15 per cent compared to last year, mainly due to the inclement weather and diseases. However, traders swear by the International Pepper Community output forecast of 70,000 tonne compared to 55,000-60,000 tonne last year.

Farmers in the Idukki region say there are very few berries this season and attribute it to the erratic monsoons coupled with the failure of the northeast monsoon. Dry spells have been longer than last year, they say.

Says Abraham Benhur, a leading pepper and coffee farmer in Wynad: ``Pepper vines in the region had been affected by pests. Leaves have turned yellow and most of them have wilted. And this has badly affected the yield.''

According to the crop survey of the Directorate of Arecanut and Spices Development done in October, a 14.5-per cent rise in pepper crop is predicted this year. Kerala is expected to produce 58,000 tonne, Karnataka 15,000 tonne and Tamil Nadu 6,000 tonne.

On the contrary, the cardamom scenario is indeed heartening. With production very low in Guatemala, a regular nightmare for the cardamom growers here, cardamom exports are likely to touch the target of 750 tonne.