Wednesday, February 21, 2001
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Jalan expects 8% growth in GDP 

Our Banking Bureau  
Mumbai, Feb 20: One may be looking at a scaled down GDP growth rate of 6 per cent, plus a lower business confidence figure at 98.8, but Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Dr Bimal Jalan remains unfazed and is of the view that the economy can still grow at 8 per cent in the medium-term.

Speaking at a seminar on `State of the Indian Economy' organised by the Indian Merchant's Chamber (IMC), Dr Jalan said: "It all depends on how you look at it. You had bad monsoons, but foodstocks are at record high levels.

Exports are up and forex reserves are at record levels. You have droughts, but there is no starvation. Twenty five to thirty years ago, it would have led to a very difficult situation. And amidst all this, we have a 6 per cent growth rate."

This observation came after a presentation by Mr Shashanka Bhide and Mr Pradeep Srivastava of the National Council for Applied Economic Research's division of macro-economic monitoring and forecasting.

"The economy is resilient enough to handle such situations as last month's earthquake in Gujarat... I have confidence in our future and I believe that given the entrepreneurial and individual ability and above all our collective confidence in our own future, nine percent growth is achievable. If not nine, definitely eight per cent," Dr Jalan said.

The country's GDP growth is expected to slow to 6 per cent in the current year from 6.4 per cent last year, but Dr Jalan said that this rate was still impressive compared to other developing and developed nations. "The economy has changed fundamentally and the strength of the Indian economy is that it can take any upside and downside with equal ease," he said. Dr Jalan also used the occasion to give a medium-term assessment of the economy.

On disinvestment, Dr Jalan said that it was not a question of the public versus private sector. And, if you thought that this meant a pat on the back for the private sector on efficiency, Dr Jalan touched upon the Sebi appointed LC Gupta committee report which stated that retail investor interest, even in the bonds of top-rate private-sector outfits were low and this was in a way linked to the issue of corporate governance.

Earlier, IMC president Sharayu Daftary said that banks need to extend concessional finance to help companies finance their voluntary retirement schemes (VRS). "In the Indian scenario, any reduction in labour force needs government permission which does not come. The only way out is VRS... banks may be instructed to give long-term loans to such units, specifically for VRS at lower interest rates," Ms Daftary said.

Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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