Analysts are a tough lot to please, so the HLL management might have figured out by now. First they put a sell call on the stock, saying there is no growth. When you deliver the growth, they will come out with 101 reasons why the growth rate cannot be sustained. In a nutshell, it is a classic case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.Leave Lever alone!!
HLL head honcho Vindy Banga may have sounded aggressive at the recent analysts' meet at Mumbai. But that has not convinced too many broking houses into reversing their sell recommendation on the stock. DSP Merry Lunch, HS Busy Securities and the Global Securities continue to maintain that their clients would be much better-off without the scrip in their portfolio. Merry Lunch counters HLL's strategy of concentrating on lesser number of brands by saying that this strategy need not work in a market like India because of huge income disparities. Also this weakens the company's advantage of `a brand for every price segment'.
Global Securities feels that but for the adjustments in staff costs on account of overstated expenses in the past, operating profit margins would have grown by only 1.8 per cent as against 3.9 per cent stated by the company. HS Busy holds the view that HLL has been able to capitalise on the declining commodity cycle, which does not look sustainable.
But there are fund managers willing to go against the tide. About 4-5 lakh shares were reportedly picked up on Monday with Savvy believed to be one of the buyers. This apart, Cane Bank alias Indo Camera too is said to be bullish on the stock.
Hard-selling software solutions
DSP Merry Lunch's stand on SSI that the current price does not reflect the intrinsic value of the business seems to be gathering attention. After Small Daddy mopped up a decent chunk last week, another regular at the counter, Uncle, also seems to have got into the act. Around 3.5 lakh shares were reported to have been picked up on Monday with Sam believed to be the driving force. In the past, the scrip has always managed to stage a good bounceback from lower levels. But at every rise, the same fund managers start picking holes in the balance-sheet and start hammering the stock.
Tough luck
All the buying interest at the Satyam Computer counter simply has not been good enough to bolster the price, other than providing the occasional spurt. For instance, close to 1.5 million shares were reported to have been picked up on Friday, with Savvy believed to be one of the prominent buyers. On Monday, about six lakh shares were said to have been picked up, with Singapoori Sarkar tipped as a likely buyer. However, sustained unwinding of speculative positions is keeping a tight leash on the prices.
Trivia
Auto stocks continued to step on the gas as players seem to be expecting the moon for the sector in the forthcoming budget. Kolkata-based Babu Moshai is reportedly active at the Telco counter while Mumbai-based Upcoming Operator is in the driver's seat at the LML counter. Merry Lunch is strongly pushing Ashok Leyland after it managed to wrest a three per cent market share in the M/HCV segment from Telco. Volumes are rising at the Bombay Dyeing counter in hopes of the next drama while global weakening of optic-fibre stock prices has negated Life Boat Fund's rescue operation at the Sterlite Optical counter.
Santosh Nair
santoshnair@myiris.com
Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.