To be a successful trader, you have to obtain the mindset that following the rules is pleasurable and breaking them is painful. But, even when you follow the rules, you will still lose money sometimes and losing money is almost always a little bit painful. You have to understand that the pain is normal, natural, like the occasional nick you get when shaving. You have to be able to accept, on an emotional level, that the pain is unimportant, that it will pass. You have to realise, in the strictest sense of the term, that success is the process of change and pain is a part of the process.The current intermediate uptrend in the market is quite mature as stocks are facing resistance at higher levels. Though the indices are still exhibiting ascending minor tops and bottoms, there are many which have currently exhibited descending minor tops and could be the first ones to go into an intermediate downtrend if the market exhibits an intermediate top.
Thus, traders, who have been holding long positions, must be quite careful and must be ready to liquidate long positions if the stocks fall into a fresh intermediate downtrend. They must never look out to average their losing positions at lower levels. Never average a loss - don't add to a losing position. Averaging down is nothing more than a rationalisation either to avoid admitting being wrong or to hope to recover against all odds. It is called "averaging down" because it is a process of adding to a losing position such that the net percentage loss on the entire position is less than it would be if the losses were calculated on the basis of the price on the opening trade.
Many old economy sectors are in a major uptrend and stocks are in a strong intermediate uptrend before the budget. We are likely to see an intermediate correction in the stocks soon and this will give investors an opportunity to get into them at reasonable levels.
Thus, it is better for investors to wait for an intermediate correction in the markets at this stage. Today, I will take a look at the detergent sector. A few stocks in this sector could be bottoming out and investors must keep a close watch at these stocks. However, do not get into any of these stocks as of now.
Henkel Spic
Henkel Spic is in a major downtrend as the stock continues to exhibit descending intermediate tops and bottoms. It has been staying below its falling 30 weekly moving average (WMA) and has not yet bottomed out. Recently, there has been a rise in the activity in the stock as can be seen by the rise in the weekly volumes. But it has been staying below its earlier intermediate top and investors must currently stay away from the stock. The stock has moved closer to its 30 WMA and the relative strength line has been improving by moving closer to its trigger line, but as it could be in the process of bottoming out, any long positions at this stage will result in the investors getting frustrated.
Hind Lever Chemicals
Hind Lever Chem could also be in the process of bottoming out as the stock has been staying above its 30 WMA in the past few weeks. However, the stock will have to move past its earlier intermediate top with a rise in volume and this could take some more time. The 30 WMA has also flattened out indicating that the stock could be in the process of bottoming out. The relative strength line has moved closer to its trigger line and will move above its trigger line once the major trend turns up. However, any long positions by investors must be taken up only after the stock completes its bottoming process.
Nirma
Nirma is the only stocks in the detergent sector which is in a major uptrend as the stocks recently moved past its earlier intermediate top with a strong spurt in volume. There has been a strong rise in the past few days accompanied by a rise in volume. The stock has moved past its 30 WMA and the best time to get into it is on a pull back towards its 30 WMA. The strong spurt in volumes suggests that there could be large scale institutional buying. The stock is technically the leader in the detergent sector and the stock, which must be picked up investors. However, wait for a correction in the stock as I expect the markets to correct themselves soon.
TN Petroproducts
Like majority of the stocks in this sector, TN Petroproducts is in a major downtrend and could be in the process of bottoming out. The stock has been staying above its 30 WMA but the volumes have been very thin. This means that though the stock may be bottoming out, there is no great interest in it and even if the stock bottoms out and goes into a major uptrend, there must be a strong improvement in the trading volumes. Otherwise, investors must stay away from this stock.
Vashisti Detergents
Vashisti Detergents is in a major downtrend as the stock continues to exhibit descending intermediate tops and bottoms. The stock has been staying below its falling 30 WMA and there are no immediate signs of the stock bottoming out. The major downtrend has been on for a while and we could soon see the stock moving sideways and bottom out if other stocks in this sector also bottom out. But it is currently the weakest in this sector and investors must stay away from the stock. The relative strength line is moving towards its trigger line, but is still well below it.
Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.