Monday, February 19, 2001
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Mr Jalan's appetiser 

 
The 50 basis points cut in the bank rate was clearly a compromise option between those who argued in favour of a 1 per cent cut, taking the bank rate back to last year's decadal low of 7 per cent, and others who advocated the status quo. There were compelling arguments for both options. The pragmatist that the governor of the Reserve Bank of India is chose to serve an appetiser, knowing well that it is the finance minister who alone can serve the main course to a demand-constrained system, where access to finance is not a major impediment to growth. By dropping hints that there are lessons to be learnt from the action of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Mr Alan Greenspan, who had brought the Fed rate down in response to concerns about slower growth, RBI Governor Jalan has encouraged the media to immediately link his rate cut to the Fed's action. It is an intelligent tactic. First, it puts the naysayers on rate cut on the defensive; second, it offers a growth context to the action.

Sceptics however will still argue that it is not interest cost which is holding back industrial growth in India but weak aggregate demand, in particular investment demand. Funds are available for the asking, and not just high-cost funds but even lower-cost funds available at internationally competitive rates. Yet there are no takers. Will the rate cut stimulate demand? At the margin, yes, but not by the required magnitude unless the finance minister does his bit to stimulate investment activity in the system. It is understandable that the RBI opted for a rate cut before the budget and did not wait for commentators and critics to exert pressure in this direction after the budget, as was the case over the last three years. The market expects another 50 basis points reduction in March or April. This may not come for some time if Mr Sinha's budget can do the trick. After all, there are compelling macroeconomic reasons, apart from the argument about what determines demand for funds, why the central bank shouldexercise caution. Inflation is clearly one such concern. For the near term, now that the RBI has done its job, we can only express the hope that banks and financial institutions will pass through the benefit of the rate cut to the market.

Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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