It is just two weeks before the season starts in Kerala. By February 15, when the season starts, none in the market or the Coconut Board could predict what will happen to the market. All eyes of traders and growers are on Nafed which has a carried over stock of 2 lakh tonnes of copra. When this is milled oil will flood the market which is already in the doldrums.

Nafed's entry into the market with oil milled through the copra it procured has already spelt disaster. Prices have been down. Coconut oil was traded at Rs 28.50 a kg at the last trade in Kochi last week. Coma sources say the situation could be worse with the Nafed milled oil and starting of the coconut season in Kerala. "None can predict the level of disaster growers and traders will face in the coming days," the source said. Says Ramakrishnan, a grower in Thrissur: "The Coconut Development Board has taken up an ambitious plan to popularise tender coconut. But sadly enough, tender coconut from my farm was sold at Rs 3 a piece. Outside at tender coconut stalls, they are sold between Rs 5 to Rs 8. The intermediaries make a fast buck."

Worse still, locally coconut fetches a maximum of Rs 2 for the grower. However, in the market it is still sold at Rs 4 to Rs 5 a piece.Followed by the season in Kerala comes that of Tamil Nadu. The season there starts in April. This is also the time when Quantitative Restrictions (QRs) are to be lifted. The price of coconut oil in the international market now rules at Rs 14 a kg, half the domestic price. From April, copra from Tamil Nadu, the stock from Kerala and the carried over stock of Nafed will have to compete at international market prices. The situation as it is can only mean more cause for mortification for the grower in the country. Growers and oil merchants say that the Government has to intervene. The Government should convene a meeting of traders and growers in South India and the Coconut Board officials to study the issue and find a solution to the problems plaguing the sector.