The banks have sounded the bugle, because waiting in the wings is a Bill that could change the complexion of the banking industry forever. The Bill, now pending in Parliament, proposes to trim government equity in nationalised banks to 33 per cent from the mandatory 51 per cent.

Once the bank clerks, tellers and officers, now considered one too many, take to gardening or golf, the industry is expected to see more action. Already some of those sleepy bank branches have begun to vanish.

Empowered by a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regulation a couple of years ago, public sector banks began merging some of their less profitable urban branches with the money-making ones.

"The move to introduce Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS) is part of the apex banking body's (Indian Bank Association) strategy to infuse young blood and professionalism in the country's banking sector," says Indian Banks Association (IBA) chairman, Mr S S Kohli. "Our report is aimed at proper manpower planning in banks,'' he adds.

Mr Kohli is also the chairman and managing director of Punjab National Bank, at which he says, nearly 10,000 of the 65,000 workforce had been identified as ``surplus staff.'' Mr Ajay Jaitley, president of the All India Punjab National Bank Officers Association, says that he does not believe that the bank has a surplus staff at all. ``The ministry is putting pressure on us to introduce it (the scheme),'' says he.

The Indian Overseas Bank has set aside Rs 75 crore for a VRS package for close to 1,500 of its employees. "We estimate an average outgo of Rs 5 lakh varying from the Class I worker to the Class IV worker in our package," says the chairman and managing director of the bank, Mr R V Shastri.

The move, though opposed tooth and nail by the All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), finds sympathy even within it. Mr Suresh Dhopeshwarkar, AIBEA president, explains that the 19 banks nationalised in July 1969, particularly had a problem because of their ``older staff profile.''

Bank of India, Central Bank and Punjab National Bank belong to the category of the banks with a problem on their hands. ``These banks expanded more rapidly than the six banks nationalised in 1980, like the Oriental Bank of Commerce and Andhra Bank,'' Mr Dhopeshwarkar points out, adding, ``The newly nationalised banks have not grown as fast, and do not have a staff problem of that magnitude.''

The AIBEA does not support the mega shearing now on at nationalised banks, though. Even those who do, have stopped in mid track to ponder. Many conclude that the VRS schemes along with the two-year freeze on fresh recruitment would immediately pose a manpower problem at most banks and may even compel them to curtail some services.

Mr Amarpal Singh, vice-president of the All India State Bank Officers' Federation (AISBOF), says SBI is already short of 10,000 officers. The VRS available to SBI staff for a fortnight beginning January 15 is likely to compound the problem, adds he.

Some banks claim that between 25 per cent and 30 per cent of their staff had opted for VRS at certain branches. In Delhi, for instance, 30 per cent of Allahabad Bank's 300 officers are rumoured to have shown a predilection for going home with the VRS booty.

The buzz in the banking grapevine is that at Bank of India, seven general managers out of 13 have sought early retirement. ``How can the remaining six be expected to carry out the work which was being done by 13,'' asks a bank officer. He claims that ``banks like the Punjab National Bank were already facing lots of problems because of an acute shortage of staff.''

A bank HRD (human resource development) chief in Delhi rubbishes the claims though. ``We will redeploy staff, ma'am,'' he says with a trace of impatience in his voice. At another bank in the capital, its chief of personnel digests union allegations more evenly.

``VRS was worth it because the age profile of the employees at our bank was high. The number of employees was more too and so they had less work to do,'' he says. ``Now the surplus has been removed and only the number actually required remain.''

Some point out that the extent of work-pressure at a bank branch would depend on the extent of computerisation and its scale of operations. Somehow the employee complaints ring true, especially since one bank has refrained from offering VRS altogether.

The Mangalore-based Corporation Bank has decided not to implement the VRS scheme, designed by the Indian Banks Association. Corporation Bank had proposed an amendment to the scheme, which was turned down by the Union ministry of finance.

Chairman Cherian Verghese has gone on record to say that the profit per employee of the bank was at Rs 2.2 lakh, which was the highest among all PSU banks. Corporation Bank has 10,500 employees spread across 649 branches, a rather close fit, say some.

The Corporation Bank Employees' Union assistant secretary, Mr Sunil Malhotra, says that his bank did not have any surplus staff at all. ``If you go to any of our branches you will find that our customer service is the best,'' says he.

``We have five people, where other banks have eight. As a matter of fact we scarcely have any leave reservation (staff the bank can fall-back on when many go on leave together). So if Corporation Bank implements a VRS, the existing employees will be enormously overburdened,'' Mr Malhotra says.

The refrain that the VRS schemes would immediately lead to a massive pressure on existing manpower resounds at other banks, too. Bank staff say the freeze on fresh recruits coupled with the mass retirement would disturb bank operations, even if for a short while.

The Union government has apparently issued guidelines to banks to try and retain ``highly skilled staff'' by not offering them the VRS option, but bank unions claim that talent was fleeing. Says Mr Amarpal Singh in Chandigarh: ``The arrival of private banks led to flight of talent from public sector banks to private sector banks. The VRS will create the same situation again.''

The All India Bank of Baroda Officers Association does not oppose VRS and its president, Mr N S Aggarwal, says he welcomes the ``new blood'' likely to stream into the industry. ``With new people joining we'll have new skills introduced,'' he says.

The new blood will remain staved off by the two-year freeze on fresh recruitment at banks offering VRS, though. What happens till then?

Bella Jaisinghani, Upasana Pande and Rahul Singh