Farmers have been disgusted by market pundits who have predicted rosy days for rubber in the coming months. "The chairman of the Rubber Board himself, has been officially stating that the prices are on the mend, said Mr P Abraham, a leading rubber dealer in Kottayam. "Considering the boom in international prices, we have even been fed dreams of exporting rubber. On the contrary, what we see is stagnation.

In the pre-Christmas mele, the price of RSS-4 had even lost the recovery it had made in early December," he told he Financial Express Kottayam and Kochi rubber markets, where transaction had averaged Rs 2000 tonne per day last season, last week hardly 75 tonne per day have changed hands.

Tyre-makers have reasons of all hues to buy rubber, only they are not doing it. The stocks in the factories have practically petered out. In tune with the crude oil prices, prices of synthetic rubber substitutes are higher than that of natural rubber. Estimations based on the Rubber Board statistics, the tyremakers have less than 10,000 tonne of rubber inventory, which can scantily carry them through another fortnight. In addition, one requires 10-12 days to transport the consignments to the factories and the integrals of a buyers' market are complete.

Meanwhile, none other than the Prime Minister AB Vajpayee, had last week raised the issue of hiking the floor price of rubber, after his year-end vacation in the rubber-belt of the country. The Centre's last benchmark price had been Rs 34.05 per kilo. The price peak in 2000 had been Rs 32.50 per kilo in July.

Adding to the expectations of a higher floor price from the Centre, there is also the inevitability of international prices soaring further. At present, RSS-3 the equivalent of the Indian RSS-4, is offered by Malaysia at a whopping Rs 30.22 per kilo, without the Indian tariff. The ministers of Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia are expected to confer this month, to come to an agreement on the new price. Rumours are agog that the revised price would be as high as $1 per kilo.

The Rubber Board had unequivocally predicted that the gap between the demand and supply will start widening this year. The dry spell in October, has already commenced casting its shadow on the output. Tappers have already started staying away. According to Rubber Board sources, by January-end, tapping will completely stop, pressing the tyre-men to improve their stocks. The only inhibiting factor is that the tyre-makers are not in a liquidity position for a shopping spree. Because of the slump in the automobile sector, there has been acute tightening of production in tyre manufacturing units, causing the inventory to run on a hand-to-mouth style.

But then, from all quarters farmers have been thoroughly prepared for a price rise that is yet to happen. "We have been stranded in the aisle for long enough," said Mr T Narayanan, a rubber-cultivater in the south. There have been farmers, who have invested in expensive equipment like rubber drying chambers and cutting machines, in anticipation of the picnic ahead.