"Our chances are 50-50," says Congress leader, AK Anthony. He is soft-spoken and hates to put out claims. But state chief minister EK Nayanar makes provocative statements and announces: "We will have 51 per cent votes and form the next government." He cites in his support the outcome of the recent local bodies' election in which the LDF registered a slight edge over the Congress.

"Had the Congress not joined hands with the BJP, it would have been roundly defeated,'' says Mr Nayanar. He has no doubt that the Congress and the BJP will have "an understanding" in the next polls. And then he laughs and says: "There is no difference between the two."

The chief minister does not hide his bias against the BJP. In his office at the secretariat, the photos of Indira Gandhi, and even Rajiv Gandhi, adorn the walls, but there is no photograph of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Yet, Mr Nayanar claims to be his friend. "I wrote to him when he was confined to his room at the Mumbai hospital after the knee operation that he should utilise the time in writing poetry."

Of course, Mr Nayanar darts his criticism against home minister LK Advani who, he believes, should have resigned after "the CBI found his complicity in the demolition of the Babri Masjid." And then goes on to question: "How can he continue as home minister?"

Kerala is split in two opposite camps, the Left and the Congress. The BJP, which is growing through the efforts of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) can make some difference but the real tilt is dependent on the Muslims, who are largely controlled by the Indian Muslim League. "We should get some Muslim votes," says Mr Nayanar, while conceding that most of the community is on Congress's side. Christians, forming 24 per cent of the population, will be divided, according to him. The extremist section among the Muslims is making some headway and its politics is mercurial. This is worrying the Keralites, who are generally secular and do not want the parochial politics of northern states to filter down. The violence between the Left and BJP activists is a source of worry. It is not communal in colour but can spread to involve the LDF in the state and the BJP-led coalition at the Centre. The Congress is scrupulously standing aside.

"There has not been a single communal riot during my tenure," says Mr Nayanar. He will be completing his five-year rule in the next few months. He does not mind coming back, although he is already 83. "If my party wants me to lead the next government, I shall do so," he says. "Both the Congress chief ministers, Karunakaran and Anthony, failed to avert communal clashes," says Mr Nayanar. Besides the secular atmosphere, another achievement that he mentions is the pension for the agricultural labour. Still, one finds under-employment and unemployment among the educated increasing in the state. Even otherwise, the standard of living is declining.

There is no poverty but there is no prosperity either. People are simple in their living and dislike ostentation. But the boom I found a few years ago in the wake of remittances from the Gulf, is missing. The state has practically no industry except what is in the public sector. The once-flourishing rubber industry wears a dismal look. Outside competition is not so much a problem as the labour trouble. The increase in the wages of workers has been a long-pending demand. Neither the LDF nor the Congress government has done little to solve the issue because of vested interests.

Many plantation owners in the state are shifting to cash crops, injuring the rubber industry nearly beyond redemption. The militancy of trade unions is scaring away investors in other fields as well. Costly labour is another impediment in the way.. Wages are high, Rs 150 a day for an unskilled worker, almost 40 per cent more than his counterpart in Tamil Nadu, which has put up several industrial complexes close to the Kerala border.

The state's mainstay is agriculture. Now that the prices of its products have nose-dived, there is widespread unrest and concern. Palmoline oil is selling at half the price because of free import from Indonesia and the Philippines. Tea and coffee too are demanding protection, again because of the dumping from abroad. Coconut, Kerala's backbone, is unable to withstand competition from Sri Lanka and Malaysia. Desperate farmers are considering felling coconut trees and sowing some other crop. "This is the Centre's fault," says Mr Nayanar. "Ten chief ministers, including Andhra Pradesh's Chandrababu Naidu and myself, have submitted a memorandum to the Prime Minister, drawing his attention to the plight of agriculturists. But there is no reply from New Delhi." Ministers and officials at the Centre shrug their shoulders and argue that it is the state's responsibility to find an alternative for farmers. Whoever is responsible, the number of farmers taking to cheap or contaminated liquor is increasing day by day.Forty of them died at Kollam, near Thiruvananthapuram, a few days ago in what is called the worst hooch tragedy.

The Congress and other opposition parties blame the state government. There is some truth in the criticism because a few communist leaders and ministers are said to be in league with toddy shopkeepers, who allegedly mix spirit with liquor for easy profits. The Congress government had imposed a ban on arrack. Mr Anthony says that "a few ministers are corrupt." However, none points the finger at Mr Nayanar, not even his worst critics. He is an open book.

It is, however, strange that the CPI(M) has turned out to be the biggest property owner in the state. A survey done by a popular Malayalam daily confirms this. Politics cannot survive without money, says a communist in defence. Since the party is hoping to share power at the Centre one day, it wants to collect funds.

It was Kerala where the CPI(M) amended its programme to allow the party to give a government at Delhi. In a way, it was the burial of the historic blunder of 1996 when the party's politburo refused to permit Jyoti Basu to become Prime Minister. "A third front will come into being slowly," says Mr Nayanar. But he himself realises that it is a long haul. "We are getting old, all top communist leaders," he says. And he has a dig at the younger leadership when he says, "only a couple of them have any base."

If the Left front returns to power, it would be primarily due to the image of Mr Nayanar. He is not an ideologue, as EMS Namboodiripad was. But his simplicity is endearing. He calls you back if you leave your number. In New Delhi most secretaries to the government of India are always "in a conference." Very few among them return calls.