Thursday, October 19, 2000
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Bear-hug could ease, but beware of long positions 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
For yet another day, tech stocks remained under strong selling pressure and affected the sentiment badly. The main culprits were Satyam Comp, Zee Tele, Infosys, Reliance, MTNL, and ITC.

From the index-point of view, the market has shown a one-way fall from 4,200 points. This fall is more than 15 per cent. And if one were to take the percentage fall from the peak of 4,790 points, the decline is of more than 25 per cent. For this reason, one can expect a corrective move on the upside.

However, this does not mean that one should go ahead and take a long position. The undertone is extremely bearish, and selling pressure is expected at higher levels.

The first hurdle for the Sensex is at 3,700 points, and the next and a very strong resistance one at that is at 3,900 points. This level is unlikely to be crossed in the short run. On the downside, the first important support for the Sensex is only at around 3,200 points. And the last base for the index is at around 2,800 points.

As for individual stocks, HLL did not show a major fall on Wednesday. It has good resistance at Rs 195. Minor base for the stock is at Rs 169. ITC has shown a decline in the last two days. It may show an upward move. It has a resistance at Rs 800.

Reliance has fallen one way from the peak of Rs 345, and for this reason, one bounce is expected. The medium-term position of the stock however is weak.

For Infosys, immediate support is at Rs 5,600 whereas major resistance exists at Rs 6,600. The next hurdle for the stock is at Rs 7,000.

Satyam Comp and Zee Tele have also shown a sharp fall in the last three trading sessions. While the medium-term outlook is negative, at best, an upward move is not ruled out in the short run.

The position of other stocks such as SBI and L&T is too far from impressive. SBI is approaching its next major support of Rs 150. For L&T, the downtrend may gather momentum below Rs 156.

MTNL is expected to face a strong hurdle at around Rs 140 but above this level, the position is likely to improve. It has a good base at Rs 120. Overall, while the undertone is bearish, and the medium term outlook is negative, a corrective move is not ruled out.

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