Thursday, October 12, 2000
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Outlook appears negative, next support around 3600 pts 

Deepak Singh Tanwar  
The fall did not come as a major surprise on Wednesday. Helped by a strong selling pressure in tech stocks like Infosys and Satyam Comp, the index dipped to a 16-month low of 3804 points. Marginal support came from stocks like ITC, L&T and Bhel but it was not strong enough to generate a smart rally from the lower position.

With the latest fall, the index closed at its previous support of around 3830 points. The outlook however is yet to improve. The next support for the Sensex is at around 3600 points. As far as upward direction is concerned, it would be of corrective nature, and will find it difficult to sustain.

The level of 4200 points will continue to act as a major hurdle. Before reaching this level, the Sensex is expected to make a fresh resistance in the coming days.

The position of tech stocks has weakened further. Infosys and Satyam Comp were mainly responsible for Wednesday's fall. Infosys is below its short-term support of Rs 7,100 and the next base for the stock is at around Rs 6,200.

Satyam Comp has also dipped its all-time medium term support. A minor base for the stock is at Rs 384. The outlook for the stock continues to remain negative. Zee Tele too appears weak. Immediate support for the stock is at Rs 400, and the next base for the stock is at around Rs 360.

The position of heavyweights like HLL, ITC and Reliance is also far from impressive. HLL remained in narrow range on Wednesday. After a sideway movement, a further fall is expected on this counter. For ITC, the stock has a strong resistance at Rs 755 and unless this level is crossed, the outlook appears negative. The fall may gather momentum below Rs 700.

Reliance has a support at Rs 320 and the downtrend may accelerate below this level. MTNL moved in a narrow range, and the position is likely to improve above Rs 128. L&T, ACC, and Tisco may continue to remain pressure.

Ovearll, the outlook appears negative and a further decline is likely from the current levels. Even if a fall does not occur from the current level, the upside is likely to be limited at this juncture. One has to wait for the consolidation process to take fresh long positions. Even for bottom fishing, one can wait for few more days.

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